I refuse to predict the outcome of the election. I have an idea but I refuse to write it down lest I jinks the result. I don't mind looking at where the professional gamblers are placing their bets.
BetUSA
1 - 8 .... Barack Obama
9 - 2 .... John McCain
If you wager $80 on Obama they will pay off only $10. They predict an 89% chance of an Obama victory and an 18% chance of a McCain win (the difference is the bookmaker's vigorish).
Paddy Power
1 - 9 .... Barack Obama
5 - 1 .... John McCain
This Irish bookmaker announced he was closed his book two weeks ago and paid off his bets assuming an Obama victory. His website is still accepting bets giving Obama a 90% chance to win and McCain 16%.
Blue Square
1 - 16 .... Barack Obama
7 - 1 ..... John McCain
These are the longest odds I can find. Obama is given a 94% chance while McCain has a 12% victory chance.
Intrade
1 - 5 ... Barack Obama
5 - 1 ... John McCain
No vigorish on this site so the odds come out even. Obama has an 84% chance; McCain a 16% chance.
Conservatives convinced McCain will win easily should get their money down now.
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2 comments:
Though those odds are interesting, they are also somewhat trivial. The bookies have set it up so that they win, either way.
Bookmakers have no philosophy, they just want money. They set the odds so there is a even flow of cash regardless of the outcome.
That is why gamblers are better predictors of the future than pollsters.
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