Ahead of the Ames, Iowa debate here is my latest handicapping of a field that is looking weaker than a $5000 claiming race at Prairie Meadows.
Rick Perry (3 to 1)
Perry is an imbecile, which just makes him more attractive to Republicans who hate the idea of a president who is smarter than a fifth grader. Perry also benefits from the Donald Trump phenomenon of not yet being a declared candidate, once he declares figure Perry dropping off.
Mitt Romney (7 to 2)
Mitt's advantage is he's the only candidate who can walk and chew gum at the same time. His disadvantage is that he is more a clone of Barack Obama than Ronald Reagan. He is raising a shitload of money because he is the establishment candidate; but he's a Mormon which for fundamentalists makes him more suspect than a Muslim.
Michelle Bachmann (11 to 1)
Yesterday's Rick Perry.
Tim Pawlenty (14 to 1)
The Ames debate is his last chance to appear relevant. If he comes off all Milquetoast again stick a fork in him, he is campaigning to be Vice-President.
Sarah Palin (16 to 1)
Showing up in Iowa with her bus trying to be relevant again. Sister Sarah is just an attention whore now.
Jon Huntsman (20 to 1)
Intrade has him at 12 to 1 but that is too optimistic. He has all of Mitt's disadvantages (smart, Mormon, liberal) with none of the advantages (money).
Ron Paul (30 to 1)
So Tea Party he pisses Earl Grey.
Herm Cain (100 to 1)
Remember back in May when Cain was the rising star nearing the top of the polls?
Gingrich, Santorium, et al (the field 50 to 1)
Chris Christie is the only one with a snowball's chance in hell of making it and I'd rather have my money on the snowball. Gingrich and Santorium could be replaced at the debate by cardboard cutouts and no one would care.
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3 comments:
(I'll try this again)
I hate people who comment on posts just to say, "I agree!" but you have somehow hit these guys just about right, in my estimation.
It's between Mitt and Rick. Romney is a perfect "unnamed Republican" to run against Obama if things look close.
Perry is a second chance at a third Bush Administration.
The generic candidate is the best choice. At least the generic candidate does not suffer from being stupid, unfeeling, a jerk, or someone with multiple opinions on the same subject depending on the time of day, location, and audience.
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