Tuesday, August 25, 2015

Presidential Tout Sheet

Opinion poll are worthless until about two weeks before an election. They suggest a vacation dalliance is true love and they are about as accurate as a blind dart player. I prefer  the predictive powers of online betting parlors. My sources is Irish bookmaker Paddy Power (odds as of today in Blue) and my own analysis (in Red).

Democratic Race
Hillary Clinton (1 to 3.5) - (even money)
Real money wagerers figure Hillary has a 77% chance to be nominated. I thing she has no better than a 50% shot. She is the choice of the moneyed establishment but she has enough extra baggage to break an elephant's back. While momentum means little this early she also doesn't have much.
Bernie Sanders (5.5 to 1) - (5 to 1)
I love Bernie and in the privacy of the voting booth he is my choice. But as the anti-establishmentarian he is swimming against a strong current of cash. The romantic in me believes that passion can defeats capital; the cynical realist believes the power of the purse always beats the power of love.
Joe Biden (9 to 1) - (3 to 1)
Bettors stay away from someone who hasn't even decided to run yet. The truth is if Hillery's campaign crashes then the power brokers are going to turn to the Vice-President as their second choice.

Martin O'Malley (40 to 1) - (20 to 1)
You'd think an Irish betting parlor would think more kindly than to give one of their own a 5% chance at the crown.

Republican Race
Jeb Bush (1.6 to 1) - (4 to 1)
Like Hillary, Jeb is the establishment favorite so the smart bettors like him. He has lots of money but, God, do Republicans hate him. If Donald Trump is the summer fling then Jeb Bush is the maiden aunt your parents want you to take to the party instead.
Donald Trump (3.5 to 1) - (9 to 1)
Bettors are starting to believe in him. Me, not so much. Donald reminds me of a supergiant star, both eventually "become unstable, pulsate, and experience rapid mass loss." He is a wild summer affair that, come winter, will look more like a sleazy whore. Of course, a lot of Republicans prefer fucking whores.
Scott Walker (5 to 1) - (10 to 1)
Another case where I disagree with the bettors. Walker has proven himself the quintessential Not Ready for Prime Time Player. It's possible that he has been learning something these past few months but learning is not a skill Walker excels at.
Marco Rubio (7 to 1) - (5 to 1)
He's my number two in the race. If Bush fails to gain any traction by December then the Republican moneyed establishment will likely turn to Marco as a marketable commodity easily controlled.
John Kasich (12 to 1) - (12 to 1)
Running third in the Koch primary. If Jeb blows up and Marco continues to look like a child then the establishment will look to Kasich. He's an experienced politician with even less charisma than Jeb.
Rand Paul (14 to 1) - (25 to 1)
Ben Carson (14 to 1) - (25 to 1)
Paul looks tiny. Carson may be doing well in polls today but he lacks both gravitas and outrageousness.
Chris Christie (20 to 1) - (25 to 1)
Carly Fiornia (20 to 1) - (25 to 1)
Rumors are that Christie will be dropping out of the race soon and Carly will be stuck on the kiddie table for the CNN debate.
Ted Cruz (25 to 1) - (5 to 1)
God do I hope the bettors are right here and I am wrong. I rank Cruz third, behind Rubio, in the race. Cruz is the natural recipient of the anti-establishment white supremacist vote should Trump flame out. And Cruz is second only to Bush in the fundraising race. He can stay in the field long after poverty forces out others. Trump plays at being a fascist. Cruz actually is one.
Mike Huckabee (25 to 1) - (50 to 1)
Bobby Jindal (33 to 1) - (100 to 1)
Rick Perry (40 to 1) - (50 to 1)
Rick Santorum (40 to 1) - (100 to 1)
Adding them all together, I give them a 6% chance at the prize and that is being generous.
Mitt Romney (no odds) - (12 to 1)
Paddy Power doesn't list Romney but if there is a deadlocked convention then there is a possibility that Mitt will be drafted as a compromise candidate. It's the kind of thing that happened a century ago (Warren Harding, 1920) but its unlikely today. Still wackier things have already happened this election cycle.

1 comment:

Katy Anders said...

I think I agree with your assessments more than those of the "experts."

In particular, I don't know what the fascination was early on with Scott Walker. But MOST of the Republicans were like that - good on paper but sort of non-entities once they started running.