Thursday, October 11, 2007

Handicapping the Presidential Race - Republicans

It has been three months since I have played this game. Three months with a bit of noise and almost no movement. As before, I'll be offering my odds and, for comparison, in red the odds calculated by the Intrade Trading Exchange.

Fred Thompson (actor-TN) 3 to 1 (4 to 1)
He survived his first debate by managing to have even lower expectations than a cadaver. He remembered a couple of scripted jokes, stuttered his way around a few questions without ever expressing an opinion, and didn't piss his pants. By FT standards he was a rousing success. Thompson-mania seems to have peaked. Conservatives are following him now like he were a 5-watt bulb in a pitch-black tunnel.

Rudy Giulianitm (former mayor of New York) - 4 to 1 (1.5 to 1)
Rudy is proof that Republican love for arrogant, blood-thirsty, authoritarian assholes exceeds their beliefs in any of their political or moral positions. They blind themselves to his pro-gay, pro-abortion, anti-gun stands and his serial marriage, anti-family lifestyle. If Democrats tried to field such a man the outrage from Republican moralists would be deafening. But, all is forgiven for Rudy because he promises to kill Muslims and defecate on the Constitution. Such is the makings of an American hero.

Mitt Romney (former gov-MA) - 10 to 1 (3 to 1)
It's funny. Lots of Republican paleo-Christians willingly forgive Rudy for being an amoral scoundrel but can't forgive Mitt for being Mormon. His gaffe that he will consult his lawyers (not generals or Democrats) before going to war with Iran has legs enough to run a marathon. In electoral terms, Mitt is a Dead Man Walking.

Mike Huckabee (gov-AR) - 12 to 1 (28 to 1)
I think Huckabee is going to become the third choice. The church-going Republicans who reject Rudy are beginning to coalesce around him. He is smarter than Thompson, ain't saying much because Huckabee is barely smarter than a rutabaga.

Ron Paul (congressman-TX) - 50 to 1 (16 to 1)
This conspiracy-theory wacko is fourth in the betting line on Intrade. Anti-war, anti-tax, anti-Bush, anti-government - what's not to love?

St. John McCain (Sen-AZ) - 300 to 1 (16 to 1)
With Halloween approaching it is fun watching a ghost participating in the presidential debates.

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