I am finding it more difficult figuring out where to place the Democratic candidates in the field. Perhaps it is because they have all gravitated around the same opinion (Get out of Iraq!) and it is hard to identify any space between them. Or, perhaps, I should start paying attention to the debates (gad, no!).
The President Race - Democrats
Same rules as last before, I'll be offering my odds and, for comparison, in red the odds calculated by the Intrade Trading Exchange.
Hillary Clinton (Sen-NY) - 2 to 1 (1 to 1)
Being the most pro-war of the anti-war candidates hasn't gotten her very much so she is undergoing a conversion. She still leads the polls but, like Rudy on the other side, her lead is slowly dropping. She has failed in her effort to freeze out her opponent's fundraising. Obama is even with her in funding, and since Clinton's campaign is top-heavy with paid staff, this puts her at a distinct financial disavantage. For the first time I don't believe Hillary is inevitable. Inevitability was her biggest advantage.
Barack Obama (Sen-IL) - 2 to 1 (2 to 1)
It is a coin flip between them right now. Obama's charisma is holding up nicely and the attempts to dull his shine have been laughable. Certainly the strangest attack has been the charge that Obama is a Manchurian Candidate, secretly a Muslim terrorist trained in an Indonesian madrassah since the age of five to be a Jihadist. Bill Clinton has come up with the curious attack that Obama has the same voting record in the Senate as Hillary. The attacks have included that Obama is too young, too pretty, still wet behind the ears, too white, too black, and he has a lousy middle name. He has come through it all smelling like a rose. I am certain that will be the next attack - Obama smells too sweet to be President.
John Edwards (former Sen-NC) - 10 to 1 (11 to 1)
Holding on to the number three position, Edwards job is to keep close and wait for an Obama-Clinton slugfest to destroy both campaigns. He had a bit of a burp with the $400 haircut but the good fortune that it happened so early no one will remember it.
Al Gore (former should have been president-TN) - 15 to 1 (9 to 1)
The "Fred Thompson" of the Democratic debate - Gore was the "Man Who Wasn't There." The difference is that Republicans have a whole lot of longing for anyone other than their current candidates, Democrats are more satisfied with their field. Gore has done nothing that says he is considering running. If he did, I would support him.
Bill Richardson (Gov-NM) - 30 to 1 (40 to 1)
Richardson has broken out of the pack to lead the also-rans. That's not saying much but I tag him as the leading Vice-Presidential candidate.