Sunday, February 10, 2013

Dorner: the Unusual Suspect

The hunt for the cop killing ex-cop would be farce if innocent people weren't getting shot and killed.

Police, armed for war, have been going door-to-door in Big Bear during a bitter blizzard searching for Chris Dorner even though he is almost certainly nowhere near that mountain resort. Dorner knows police tactics - if he leaves an obvious clue, like his burned out truck, it is because he wants the police to overreact to it. Dorner likely had another car, unregistered and probably bought for cash, stored in Big Bear waiting to swap out for his easily identified truck.

Every clue the police are chasing is something Dorner left behind deliberately. They are false clues. The police themselves are behaving like imbeciles - shooting at innocent citizens and running around like Keystone Cops.
If Dorner's goal was to embarrass the LAPD, he has succeeded.

Where is Dorner now? 
Possibly living in an SRO in one of those dangerous neighborhoods where police are afraid to go except in groups with tactical backup. He is probably not far from Los Angeles because Dorner knows he is most vulnerable when he travels. He would choose a place with few security cameras, Beverly Hills is out, and he has probably established his presence there so he wouldn't be a scary new face.

That said, Dorner is holed up. He has supplies of food and water for several weeks. He'll have enough cash to stay off the grid indefinitely. Having made his intentions known, Dorner will now lie low while police agencies exhaust themselves in the manhunt. He will not venture out of his room where he might be accidentally spotted unless it is absolutely necessary. When his hunters are tired and bored Dorner will strike again then retreat back into hiding.

Dorner probably has an extensive arsenal stored in several caches. He likely bought the weapons legally, with cash. Since background check information (as an ex-cop Dorner would pass background checks with ease) is quickly destroyed, there will be no records of what and where he bought his weapons and munitions.

A Note to the Police
I don't have any actual knowledge here, only what I have learned from movies (the Bourne trilogy), books (1984), and TV police procedurals. Also, if one wants to learn how to be a successful murderous lunatic one ought to study the Beltway Sniper, what worked and where they failed. Their success hinged on striking quickly and disappearing. Their failure came in driving around too much and sleeping in their car where they could be stumbled upon and arrested. 

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