Monday, July 16, 2007

Handicapping the Presidential Race - Democrats

Winning the "money primary" doesn't necessarily mean winning a presidential nomination. In 1996, Phil Gramm had more money than the rest of the Republican field before the Iowa caucuses. He ran such a sucky campaign he dropped out of the race before New Hampshire. Still, money is a good way of keeping score before the votes are cast, especially small donations.

Same rules as last before, I'll be offering my odds and, for comparison, in red the odds calculated by the Intrade Trading Exchange.

Hillary Clinton (Sen-NY) - 1.5 to 1 (1.2 to 1)
Seems to be running a solid campaign, although if you go to events you sometimes wonder whether Bill Clinton is running instead. Her fund raising is sufficient to lubricate her expensive campaign staff, she is in no danger of pulling a McCain.

Barack Obama (Sen-IL) - 1.6 to 1 (1.6 to 1)
Winning the money primary and the runaway winner of the small donor race. Obama has spent more money this past quarter than Clinton but much of that was his extensive small donor fundraising efforts which has the added benefit of being an aggressive voter outreach program. It is money well spent. It is telling that both Obama and Clinton have each raised more money in the past quarter than all of the Republican candidates combined.

John Edwards (former Sen-NC) - 20 to 1 (17 to 1)
Still the show horse. I really don't have any comments because he is barely visible.

Al Gore (TN) - 50 to 1 (16 to 1)
He is not running. I grieve.

Chris Dodd (Sen-Conn) - 100 to 1 (300 to 1)
I heard one of Dodd's stump speeches last month and was impressed, more impressed than I am with either Clinton or Obama. He has enough money ($6.4 million) to stay in the race and if enough people hear him speak he has a chance. They won't.

Bill Richardson (Gov-NM) - 150 to 1 (50 to 1)
Going nowhere, slowly.

The Field - 1000 to 1
There is no one else out there with a chance and no one will crawl in under the baseboard to compete. The Democratic presidential nominee will be one of these six people. Five excluding Gore (I grieve again).

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