Thursday, June 04, 2015

Presidential Horse Race Tout Sheet

I know I said I wouldn't be paying attention until Fall, but in honor of the Belmont Stakes here is an early look at the presidential horse racing odds. British bookies are all over this already.
Hillary Clinton (even money)
I can't give her better than a 50-50 chance. Her negatives are huge, she's a piss poor campaigner, and I can foresee several ways she can lose a long race.

Marco Rubio (5 to 1)
Bookmakers rank him lower but he is the only candidate not drowning in unfavorables. His owner, Norman Braman, is not the richest sugardaddy, he only ranks 1006th on Forbes list of global billionaires, but he's rich enough to buy some smaller primary races.

Jeb Bush (6 to 1)
Bookies put him higher but I don't see it. He is well known, but that just means more people hate him. His jockeys are all famous fuckups.

Scott Walker (10 to 1)
Has a richer owner, the Koch Brothers, than Rubio. His tendency to stick his hoof in his mouth while on the track may give him troubles.

Rand Paul (20 to 1)
Seabiscuit was a small horse too but Rand is no Seabiscuit. Rand's habit of biting everyone who comes near him is making it hard for him to find backers.

Ted Cruz (25 to 1)
Talk about a biter. The bookies are all over the board on Cruz because he tends to look better in the paddock than on the track. He is owned by hedge fund crook Robert Mercer, but Mercer tends to buy losers.

Rick Perry (40 to 1)
Imbecilic Texas governors have a depressing ability to run well on the presidential track. That said, his last time out was truly pathetic.

Lindsay Graham (50 to 1)
His biggest competition is with Jeb Bush over who is the most hated. Gambler Sandy Alderson will probably end up buying him which is the only reason he rates this high.

Ben Carson (60 to 1)
The dark horse in the field. Sorry, that's a horrible joke. His first outing should be a maiden claiming race, not at this level. One of several horses in the race just trying to con folks out of their money.

Rick Santorum (80 to 1)
Last time he ran he finished tenth in an eight horse race. The last race he won was 14 years ago.

Carly Fiorina (100 to 1)
The other filly in the field but Carly runs like a girl and not in a good way.

The others (100 to 1)
Huckabee, Pataki, Jindal, Christie, Trump are all more fitting for a zany comedy than a legitimate campaign. Pictured below are Jindal (the ethnic), Christie (the horse's ass), Huckabee (I wish he were as mute as Harpo), Trump (the con man), and Pataki (the front half of a horse's ass).
I'm not going to rank the other Democrats in the race. I love Bernie Sanders, I don't trust Martin O'Malley, and I don't know Lincoln Chafee. Never bet in a race where your emotions rule.

By the way, those British bookmakers have American Pharaoh at odds of 10 to 11 to win the Triple Crown. That's slightly better than Hillary Clinton to win the Presidency.

1 comment:

Katy Anders said...

Clinton has that Gore/Romney/Kerry vibe, where she doesn't come across as human. Maybe she can do a poll and find a focus group and some consultants to decide how she should address that.

I don't know. I just don't know yet.