Iowa Musings

It is possible, damn well mandatory in punditry circles, to read too much into the results of the Iowa caucuses. No one ever won a presidential nomination in Iowa although some have lost it there (Yeah, I'm talking to you, Phil Gramm.)

Democrats
I hit the trifecta, the top three in the correct order (Yay, me!). While Clinton took a hit to her "inevitability" message the results don't otherwise change the longterm election dynamics. I suspect that John Edwards invested too much physical energy in Iowa; pulling that all-nighter may have moved him from third to second but he showed signs of exhaustion Thursday night. He needs a good sleep but there are only five days to New Hampshire.

I expect the Clinton camp to spin Obama's win as the Oprah Effect, an aberration caused by Oprah campaigning with him. She'll also blame outsiders, college students, for Obama's win but she will avoid using the word "carpetbaggers" unless she is hopelessly thick. Obama, if he is wise, will not lose focus on Super-duper Tuesday as he shifts over to New Hampshire. The nomination will be won or lost of February 5, not January 8.

Republicans
I got the predictions all wrong. Have I mentioned recently that I really don't understand Republicans? Fred Thompson and John McCain are trying to spin their third/fourth place results as victories because they prove both are not quite dead yet. Neither result is remarkable. Thompson campaigned heavily, for his lazy self, it is an effort he cannot sustain. McCain's 13 percent is a little better given he avoided the state. Both results are more anti-Huck/Mitt than pro-Fred/John.

The big loser is Rudy Giuliani. His decision to sit out the early votes and focus on Feb. 5 is biting him in the ass big time. The nomination may be won or lost in February but you have to at least suit up for the first quarter. His result (4%) is pathetic; he couldn't even get the anti-other guys votes. (Advice for the future: Even if you are sitting out Iowa, have a stealth field operation in the state. McCain did.) Romney invested so much time and money in Iowa his result is horrible but survivable.

What to say about Huckabee? He is a one-trick pony with little money. The hatred he is attracting from the pro-war/anti-tax Republicans is new; Pat Robertson and Gary Bauer never saw this. Orthodox Republicans have grown used to the evangelicals being good little soldiers; the slightest chance of a faith-based coup in the party is triggering a bitter reaction. The question is, will the religious Republicans loyally return to the fold after Huckabee is crushed like an insect?