Handicapping the Presidential Race

I don't want to predict New Hampshire because it is a coin flip in both parties. If Obama wins, so will Romney; if McCain wins, so will Clinton. Same rules as before, I'll be offering my odds and, for comparison, in red the odds calculated by the Intrade Trading Exchange.

Democrats
Hillary Clinton (Sen-NY) - 1 to 1 (1 to 1)
Clinton has lost her momentum but hasn't lost her edge. She has the resources and guile to wage a mudslinging extravaganza against Obama. Her latest effort is to praise Obama as the most liberal candidate in the race with the goal of chasing independents to Republican McCain. At the same time Edwards is accusing Obama of selling out to conservatives.

Barack Obama (Sen-IL) - 1.5 to 1 (1 to 1)
Obama has momentum, charisma, enthusiasm, and charm. Clinton has ruthlessness and the Democratic (I almost typed "Republican") establishment. Obama's test will be in the great, unwashed wilderness of California, Florida, and Michigan. I don't like it, but I still have to give Hillary the edge.

John Edwards (former Sen-NC) - 30 to 1 (24 to 1)
His second place finish will just about buy him a taco, if he also has a dollar. He threw everything he has - money, time, and energy - into Iowa. He needed to win. Has only a slender hope that Obama and Clinton will destroy each other.

Republicans
Mitt Romney (former gov-MA) - 4 to 1 (5 to 1)
Didn't suffer as much as pundits think in Iowa but he needs New Hampshire. A double loss will handicap him severely. Oddly, his wisest move will be to subtly boost Obama to keep independents from voting for McCain.

St. John McCain (Sen-AZ) - 7 to 1 (2 to 1)
All this talk about Jesus from Romney and Huckabee and here is McCain doing the resurrection bit. Beloved by the Washington reporters (and nearly nobody else) many conservatives are seeing St. John as the only viable alternative to the bible-thumper.

Mike Huckabee (gov-AR) - 8 to 1 (5 to 1)
Kinda enforces the whole George Bush is the AntiChrist theory the way the Orthodox Republicans are in a paroxysm of horror at Huckabee's win. Could win South Carolina, Florida, Michigan, and Texas. Add a four-way tie in California and the odds of a brokered convention loom.

Rudy Giuliani^tm (former mayor of New York) - 10 to 1 (2.5 to 1)
Sixth place in Iowa, behind Ron Paul. Possibly fifth place, again behind Paul, in New Hampshire. Not bothering to engage in the election until Florida. It is hard to win a race if the other horses are rounding the quarter-mile pole and you are still strapping on the saddle.

Fred Thompson (actor-TN) 30 to 1 (30 to 1)
Skipping New Hampshire to concentrate on South Carolina, where he is in fourth place polling 15%. Am I the only one to notice that that Fred is avoiding the snows of Manchester for the warmer climes of Charleston? There is a hammock waiting for Fred that he just can't wait to get back to. It is fun reading Republican bloggers whine that Fred is the only "real conservative" in the race and he is attracting less support than Larry the Cable Guy.

Ron Paul (congressman-TX) - 40 to 1 (20 to 1)
There are two Republican candidates absolutely despised by Orthodox Republicans. Don't be surprised if Paul pulls another 10 percent of the vote in New Hampshire.