The Legal Right to Fair Use

A commenter to an earlier of my postings, Christmas Presents, implied I was stealing copyrighted material. As a service to this gentleman, here is a quick primer on the concept of Fair Use.

In the United States, copyrighted material may be used without permission in limited ways subject to quite expansive criteria. There are four common tests of Fair Use.
As an example, I will use the photo of the musical group GrooveLily that I used in Christmas Presents without permission.

1. What is the character of the use? Is the use personal, commentary or review, or is the use commercial - am I putting it on a t-shirt and selling it? I am using the photo to promote a musical group that I like.
   
2. What is the nature of the work to be used? Is it fact or imaginative? You can copyright text of a news story but you can't copyright the facts in that story. You can't take someone else's fictional story and claim it as your own. The photo is a mix, it is an artistic work of real people.
3. How much of the work is used? Am I using a sentence, a paragraph, the whole damn novel? The photo is used in its entirety. None of their music is reproduced without permission.
   
4. What is the effect on the work's value? If my use of the work were seen by millions, what would be the effect? Would it diminish the value of the original work? This is a publicity photo. I linked back to the GrooveLily website. If millions saw it GrooveLily might sell many more CDs. I'm guessing they would like that.

Bloggers quote bits and pieces of published works all the time. The works falls under Fair Use because the use is limited, for the purposes of commentary or criticism, and due credit is given through hyperlinks. Occasionally, I have used art to illustrate a post that is likely protected by copyright. For example, here I used a painting by a living artist hanging in the Tate Gallery. I referenced the work and linked directly to the source of the photo. The effect of seeing my blog post is to promote the artist and his work.

So, to answer your questions. No, I didn't bother to get permission. Yes, I do know the copyright laws (probably damn well better than you do). I don't need permission because everything I use in all my posts is well within the concept of Fair Use.

In producing this work, I referenced without permission a publication by the University of Texas. It was Fair Use.

Tidbits and Nicknacks

• Saddam Hussein was hanged on the Moslim holiday of Eid Al Adha. This is like holding an execution on Christmas. Some Iraqis are calling it a "blessing" of the season. Other Moslims are calling it a desecration of a holy day. One commenter at Dean's World notes that this kind of needless complication smells of White House bungling.
• I wake up this morning and click on NPR just as the news reader is saying "President Bush is lying in state at this hour." He meant "President Ford" but that was one hell of a way to wake up on a Sunday morning.
  

The answer to the Magical Mystery Meme
1. True. A couple decades ago, I was the assistant to the project manager of a sewage recycling demonstration project being built in Tijuana and was an invited guest to many sewage related events. Raw sewage and caviar makes for a surreal afternoon.
2. True. In the muskeg swamps of the northern Yukon you either adapt to the mosquito swarms or they drive you insane. Not a little crazy, stark raving insane. After a couple weeks to adapt (and a mid-summer snow storm that killed off several tons of the bugs and left the survivors sluggish) I began to relate to the little mothers just trying to feed their children. Then I would kill them.
3. False. This is something I wanted to do while in college but a surfeit of fear and common sense prevented it. It is true that you mostly regret the things you never did.
4. True. I was loosely connected to the Mountain Lion Preservation Foundation and this was a research trip. Traveling with a mountain lion researcher consists mostly of standing on a ridge with a guy carrying a radio receiver, having him point to a distant thicket of chaparral, and hearing that there is a lion hiding there that you can't see. The blood thirsty raccoons were the most memorable part of the trip.
5. True. Among the things I learned on that trip: Hotel restaurants in Skagway won't serve hippies. Disputes over parking places in Ketchikan can be decided by who has the biggest gun. When traveling on the Alaskan State Ferry system, stay away from the tourists and hang out with the locals - way more fun. Even huge dogs won't bite if you don't show fear.

Thoughts Upon a Hanging

By the end Saddam Hussein had become just a comma in the history of Iraq, of little conequence compared to the daily butchery and chaos that the country continues to suffer under the American occupation. One would hope, at least, that his death would slack the thirst for blood that has become the central core of conservative philosophy in the United States, but I have no delusions. Skimming rightwing web blogs I have encountered the expected schoolgirl giddiness mixed with outrage at anyone who does not share their glee with sufficient enthusiasm.

I'm afraid that nothing will sate the bloodlust of my fellow countrymen. American conservativism feeds on death and war. There is not enough hemp, not enough bombs to ever quiet the souls of the Republican Death Cult.

Let's Go To ... Iran

I never cease to be amazed. With the Iraq War an unmitigated cock up, there are still deranged neo-cons who think beginning a war with Iran would be a brilliant follow-up. George Mason History Professor Arthur Herman offers his chickenhawk wetdream in Commentary Magazine.

Herman's war plan for Iran is the same as all of the others I've read in the last year.

• Bomb the Hell out of the country,
• Capture Iran's off shore oil rigs,
• Kick back and have a brewski.

Herman is an apostle, a true believer, in the religion of "painless war." He believe defeating Iran will require only one Marine brigade (3,000 troops) plus the shock-and-awe air power of two carrier groups. He is certain that the Iranian military will meekly accept the beating like a wimpering puppy, that the Iranian people will react to being bombed back into the stone age by overthrowing their government and installing a pro-American democracy, and that the rest of the world will stand back in wonder as the Lone Great Superpower flexes its muscles.

I feel sorry for Herman's students because Professor Herman is more ignorant of history than the rankest freshman. No country in the history of air power has ever been defeated purely by bombing. Not Great Britain or Germany and Japan during WWII, not North Vietnam during Operation Rolling Thunder, not even Iraq in 1991 or 2003. It takes boots on the ground to win a war. Bombing campaigns can devastate a nation's infrastructure but they do not demoralize its people. Rather, it unites the citizens to stand against the cowardly bastards who are lobbing the bombs from a safe distance.

Herman's strategic military knowledge is no better than his historical knowledge. His plan is to use one Marine brigade to occupy 100 Iranian off shore oil rigs. That would place a single platoon atop each of 100 highly explosive targets. Herman doesn't even consider the absolute certainty that Iranians would gladly blow up captured oil rigs to kill American Marines.

The sickest delusion is one that neo-cons have continued to hold since before the Iraq War. They believe that the United States can start a "short, sharp war" and once we declare the war is over - by God, the war is over. Saying "Mission Accomplished" doesn't make it so. Just like the Iraqis, the Iranians will not stop fighting just because we don't want to fight anymore.

Glenn Greenwald at Unclaimed Territory has an outstanding commentary on Herman specifically and neo-con insanity in general. His final words on the subject deserve repeating,

excising people like Herman and his allies from our political dialogue is the highest priority in beginning to repair the destruction they have spawned.

'Tis the Silly Season

There is just not a lot happening for opinion bloggers this time of year. Sure, the killing and dismembering in Iraq is continuing apace. President Bush is laboring mightily to come up with some way to describe his "New Approach" in Iraq so it doesn't sound like just pouring more troops into a Stay-the-Course cauldron. It's raining, or snowing, depending on your latitude and altitude. There is not much sun to brighten up the annoyingly short days.

Which brings me to the Magical Mystery Meme. 300 Dollar Wonder tagged me with this challenge: Write five stories. Four are absolutely true, the other is utter crap. Guess which is false.

1. I ate caviar on Ritz crackers at the grand opening of a sewage treatment pond south of Tijuana. There is something oddly beautiful about the way the bright sun glistens off billowing foam pillars of human waste as they soars high in the sky.
2. While kayaking on the Porcupine River well above the Artic Circle in the Yukon Territory I developed such a rapport with the millions of mosquitos there I would calmly watch them sucking blood from my arm before regretfully squishing them.
3. In my youth I bought a mule and hiked alone from Lone Pine to Death Valley. The route crossed the Cottonwood Mountains and down Marble Canyon to Stovepipe Wells where a friend picked me up. It was far more brutal than I had imagined; the mule died on the trail.
4. I was once chased by a herd of ravenous raccoons while visiting with a mountain lion researcher in Northern California. The raccoons had been making a decent living off of humans in a campground south of San Francisco but an earthquake caused landslide had closed the road and they had changed from sly nocturnal thieves into bold daytime gangsters.
5. While on a solo tour of Alaska's Inside Passage I was walking from the ferry terminal to downtown Sitka when a huge dog, large enough to frighten an Alaskan bear, ran down the road to confront me. As I stared down the snarling dog I imagined the headline, "Patriotic Pooch Eats Hippie Freak." I was a patient hippie. The dog got bored with the staring contest and wandered away.
   

So, there you have it. Four stories that are totally true and one brewed out of my sick imagination. Good luck.

Those Who Cannot Learn from History Are Doomed to Repeat It

The parallels between the American adventure in Iraq and the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan in the 1980's would be instructive if anyone in power in the United States would try to learn from it.

The Soviet-Afghan War
The Afghans never warmed to the Soviet occupation. There were protests, general strikes, and a infant insurgency. Still, it seemed to go well early. In the second year, 1980, there was a small, token troop withdrawal. But the pro-Soviet Afghan government was incompetent, the Soviet civilians in country (the KGB) were renown for both their corruption and brutality - not unlike the American mercs in Iraq today.

The Soviet Surge
While the Soviets never had the succinct phrase "as they stand up, we will stand down," their goal was the same. They wanted to build up the Afghan forces so the Red Army could go home. In 1983, during the fifth year of the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan, the mujaheddin insurgency was growing both in strength and efficiency. The Soviet Union decided to surge in an additional 30,000 troops (raising troops levels from 80,000 to 110,000). Their plan was to suppress the insurgents and buy time to train the Afghan Army.

An article published by the Foreign Military Studies Office, Fort Leavenworth, Kansas in 1996 listed the goals of the Soviet military occupation, goals remarkably similar to the US Army strategy for Iraq.

stabilizing the country by garrisoning the main routes, major cities, airbases and logistics sites;

relieving the Afghan government forces of garrison duties and pushing them into the countryside to battle the resistance;

providing logistic, air, artillery and intelligence support to the Afghan forces;

providing minimum interface between the Soviet occupation forces and the local populace;

accepting minimal Soviet casualties; and,

strengthening the Afghan forces, so once the resistance was defeated, the Soviet Army could be withdrawn.

How Did It Work?
The Surge became a permanent escalation. Troops levels stayed above 110,000 for five years, until the Red Army began to withdraw in 1988. The Soviets trained the Afghans to fight like modern soldiers, they would then desert and take their weapons to join their tribal militas and use their training to kill Russians. From the same article are some of the lessons learned by the Red Army in Afghanistan that the US Army has failed to heed.

A guerrilla war is not a war of technology versus peasantry. Rather, it is a contest of endurance and national will. The side with the greatest moral commitment (ideological, religious or patriotic) will hold the ground at the end of the conflict.

Battlefield victory can be almost irrelevant, since victory is often determined by morale, obstinacy and survival.

Tactics for conventional war will not work against guerrillas.

Support of the population is essential for the winning side.

The Red Army suffered 13,310 deaths and 35,478 wounded during nine years of war. The US Army has had 2,979 killed and 22,032 wounded in less than four years. These are very similar numbers. The Red Army averaged about 450 casualities per month; the US Army is averaging over 500 casualities per month. The better survival rate of wounded soldiers (8 to 1 in Iraq; 3 to 1 in Afghanistan) is a sign of better body armor, not less intense fighting.

The lessons are there in history. The United States leadership seems determined to repeat history along it's bloody, failed path.

Christmas Presents

Here are a few gifts for the season.

Best Comedian, Ever, Before You Knew Him
Bill Cosby, back in the sixties and seventies before his television shows, was the best stand-up comic there ever was. This is one of his classic routines.

Best Music You Have Never Heard
GrooveLily. They are an eclectic rock band out of New York. If you haven't heard them, and you probably haven't, you are missing a treat. Visit their website. Go, now, I'll wait....Now go to the website for the off-Broadway production of Striking 12, their New Year's Eve telling of "The Little Match Girl." It is funny and touching and heartwarming. Just what we need on these cold winter nights. I'll wait again....Did you visit the Media section? Did you listen to to the sample of "Sales Pitch" from the show's CD? I didn't think so. Go back....

Great Movie You May Have Missed
If you only know Barbara Stanwyck from "The Big Valley" or Fred MacMurray from his Disney films, you probably skipped this film noir classic. Don't.



The Great American Novel
Others will disagree. I know and don't care. This is the greatest novel by the greatest American writer. Period.

Television
You probably are already watching Battlestar Galactica, but for one moment do you think I would miss the opportunity to post a photo of that most striking of Cylons, Lucy Lawless.

At the risk of enraging the War on Christmas crowd, may the coming year bring Peace On Earth. Finally.

Playing Tag

The game is tag. I got tagged by Kvatch at Blognomyous.

The rules:
1. find the nearest book
2. list title and author
3. turn to page 123
4. go to the fifth sentence
5. copy out the next three sentences
6. tag three more

The book: The Treasure of Sierra Madre
Author: B. Traven

"Free is the bush, and the desert, and the woods, and the mountain ranges for whoever likes to camp there. In that you are right. But we were the first here; we've got the first claim."

Finished reading it recently and haven't shelved it. Passing things along to Pissedonpolitics, Hecate, and 300 Dollar Wonder.

Shorter Iraq War Plans

Everybody has a different plan for what to do next in Iraq. As a public service, here is the gist of all of the plans.

The Politicians
St. John McCain ~ Pour in more troops...and then more troops...and still more troops for, gee, well forever, because I was in a prison camp and missed all the fun when we did that in Vietnam.
Sen. Harry Reid ~ Pour in more troops...and take them right back out again.
President George Bush ~ Pour in more troops and wait for the Invisible Pink Unicorn to arrive with a miracle.
Prime Minister Tony Blair ~ Whatever you want, George.
Joint Chiefs of Staff ~ Have a plan first, for once in your fucked up life have a fucking plan before doing something.
Iraq Study Group ~ Talk to everyone, and quietly sneak out while everyone is talking.

In the Region
Iraqi Prime Minister al-Maliki ~ But, everything is going so well.
Iranian President Ahmadinejad ~ Yea, like we're going to help you.
Muqtada al-Sadr ~ Kill all the Sunnis.
Saudi Arabia ~ Kill all the Shi'ites.
Israel Prime Minister Ehud Olmert ~ Kill all the Iranians, too.

None of the politicans seem to be listening to...
Just about everybody who isn't certifiably insane ~ Bug out of there. As soon as possible bug-the-Hell out of there.

It's Called 'Gambling' for a Reason

It is known as "doubling down" in gambling and stock market investing. It is the practice of doubling the money you have investment in a losing position with the hope that the law of averages will eventually work in your favor.

My Pappy took me into a casino. He pointed to the faro table, roulette, craps, and chuck-a-luck. "Son," he said, "this here is what they call 'gambling.' Gambling is for suckers. The odds are always against you; you can never win. As long as you live, stick with poker." ~ Bret Maverick

Doubling down is also the Iraq War strategy currently favored by St. John McCain and President Bush. Their plan is to add an additional 20, 30, 40 thousand troops to the Iraq War - it seems the number is getting bigger with each passing day. The theory is, if we keep pouring more and more bodies into the Iraq conflict, eventually, we just have to win. We just have to.

Doubling down is a sucker play. It was the US strategy in Vietnam and the Soviet strategy in Afganistan. It is what losers do when their ego overwhelms their intelligence.

The Definition of 'Secret' Is...Damn, I Don't Know Anymore

1.25 - These military devices, leading to victory, must not be divulged beforehand.
6.9 - O divine art of subtlety and secrecy! Through you we learn to be invisible, through you inaudible; and hence we can hold the enemy's fate in our hands. ~ The Art of War, Sun Tsu

The Pentagon has released its 282-page counterinsurgency manual as an open document, available to absolutely everyone. Including allowing the insurgents in Iraq to know exactly which tactics will be used and how they will be implemented. If knowledge is power, and in war it is, then the Pentagon has empowered the insurgents beyond any explosive weapon they could possibly have acquired.

On the other hand, former National Security Council Middle East analyst, Flynt Leverett, has written an op-ed for the New York Times. The article contains no secrets and has been approved by the CIA for publication. However, it is critical of the Bush Administration's refusal to engage in negotiations with Iran. The White House has declared Leverett's article Top Secret and forbidden its publication.

So, a highly sensitive document the release of which could, and probably will, cause the deaths of scores of servicemembers? That is an open, public document. But, an opinion piece that contains nothing remotely sensitive but is disparaging of the President's diplomacy? That is a classified state secret.

If release risks Bush's poll numbers? Secret.
If release only risks the lives of cannonfodder? Not secret.
Sense this makes? None.

P.S. I got my PDF copy of the counterinsurgency manual, get yours.

Go Ahead and Filibuster

The Republicans in the Senate have come up with a brilliant idea. By brilliant I mean grotesque in a vile and soulless way. Republicans are threatening to filibuster the Senate's organizing resolution unless the rules are written to give Republicans control of the Senate in the event that Senator Tim Johnson dies.

Go ahead! Let 'em Filibuster! Let the bastards explain how they are not bloodthirsty vultures circling an honorable man's sick bed. Don't be gentle. Force them to talk day and night - no sleep breaks, no bathroom breaks. Hold cloture vote after cloture vote. Force the Republicans in mass to repeatedly defend the indefensible. Force them, again and again, to explain to an American public that doesn't give a rat's ass about the procedural setup of the United States Senate just why they are shutting down the government while patriotic Americans are dying in Iraq. Don't give an inch. Not a sentence. Not a syllable. Not a vowel. Stand firm against these sick bastards and their cult of death!

Art is by Leonardo da Vinci, pen and ink on paper, depicting a committee of five Republican senators. Left to right they are: Orrin Hatch, Trent Lott, Jim Bunning, Saxby Chambliss, and Elizabeth Dole.

Theorizing upon Senator Johnson's Illness

I won't say I believe this, necessarily. But...considering what we know to date:

• Senator Tim Johnson (D-SD) has been stricken with a mysterious illness that is not a stroke but presents similar symptoms
  
• If Senator Johnson dies his replacement will be appointed by the Republican governor of South Dakota
• If he is replaced by a Republican, control of the Senate will go to the Republicans
• Following the November election, a few rightwings were speculating as to which Democratic senators in states with Republican governors had the best chances of dying and thusly reversing control of the senate
  
• In recent years, two Democratic senators from Midwestern states - Paul Wellstone of Minnesota and Mel Carnahan of Missouri - died in mysterious airplane crashes. Wellstone's death led to the election of Republican Norm Coleman; Carnahan's death should have left the field open for John Ashcroft but Carnahan won the election posthumously.
  

I hope I am just being paranoid. I pray that Senator Johnson recovers and the cause of his illness is discovered and is beyond question. But, there is a thought nagging at my brain that will not let me sleep. What if Senator Johnson was poisoned? Can we have faith that the cadre of true believers in Dick Cheney and George Bush did not have a hand in this? It is part of the sickness of the current administration that this is both possible and believable.

Reliving History - Afganistan/Vietnam Perspective

The news that Bush is seeking to replace Iraq's president is just deja-vu to me. Both the Soviet Union during its occupation of Afganistan and the United States during the Vietnam War tried to turn around losing wars with the same tactic and it failed both times.

Vietnam War
On three occasions, the United States change the course of the Vietnam War by changing the leadership of Vietnam. In 1963, the CIA had South Vietnam's long time leader, Ngo Dinh Diem, assassinated. Ngo had an annoying independent streak that frustrated the American leaders who wanted a free hand in the war. He was replaced by a CIA favorite, Duong Van Minh, who was overthrown in a coup by the US Army's choice, Nguyen Khanh. Lyndon Johnson's man, puppetmaster Nguyen Cao Ky, and Ky's puppet, Nguyan Van Thieu, who became Richard Nixon's favorite, followed. The revolving door of South Vietnam leaders marked the ebb and flow by various factions within the United States government for control of the war.

Soviet Afganistan War
This war most closely resembles the United States Iraq adventure. The Soviets installed Babrak Karmal in 1979. By 1986, the Russians had decided that Karmal was too weak to end the insurgency that wracked the country. Mohammad Najibullah was "elected" to replace Karmal. The Russians then stepped up the fighting in Afganistan in the hopes of crushing the insurgency and allow for the withdrawl of the Red Army. It didn't work too well.

Iraq Today
Bush seems to be playing from the Soviet handbook. Could this be the influence of Condi Rice? She is an expert on the old Soviet Union and may be reaching for a solution to the Soviet strategies she knows so well. I feel confident I can predicted the future here. Al-Maliki will be replaced by someone hand chosen by Abdul Aziz al-Hakim - puppet and puppetmaster (Iraq versions of Thieu and Ky). American forces will engage Muqtada al-Sadr's Madhi Army and use that combat to declare victory and withdraw from Iraq (the Soviet component). Iraq will evolve into an Iranian satrap. Iran will control the country but George Bush will have saved face. Oh, and several hundred more American soldiers will die worthless deaths.

Blaming Cassandra

One of the most common themes coming from the rightwing is to blame liberals for the failure of the Iraq War. If it were not for us Surrender Monkeys undermining the war effort Iraq would be Utopia now. Nonsense. We didn't cause the failures, we just predicted them.

The war was destined to fail. Conquer a third-rate dictatorship - easy. Impose a pluralistic pro-American democracy at the point of a gun without utterly obliterating their society (see Japan and Germany in WWII) - absurd. Do it without the support of the international community, indeed without any apparent plans for the postwar occupation - hubris. It is easy to walk into a swamp without a map, compass, or hip-wadders. It is easy to go in but damn hard to get out again alive.

I admit I underestimated the degree of failure. I did not anticipate the level of corruption of the Coalition Provisional Authority and how that would inhibit reconstruction as well as encourage Iraqi corruption. While I anticipated opposition by Shi'ites, I didn't foresee the pending civil war between Shi'ite factions (Mahdi Army vs. Badr Brigade). I didn't predict that the Pentagon would allow wide-spread looting in the aftermath of the conquest of Baghdad and how that would quickly destroy any image of omnipotence the invasion would give to the US Army. I didn't anticipate our soldiers would be exposed to the world torturing prisoners. While I knew President Bush was not the sharpest pencil in the drawer, I failed to envision his pigheadedness.

Blaming liberals for our defeat in Iraq is like blaming Cassandra for the fall of Troy. We may have predicted it, but we didn't cause it. The failures in Iraq have been caused by attempting an impossible task and doing it incompetently.

Cassandra ~ daughter of King Priam of Troy. Beloved by the god Apollo, he granted her the gift of prophesy; spurned by her, he cursed her to never be believed. She predicted the Trojan War, the fall of Troy, and her own rape and death. No one believed her until it was too late.

The Lexicography of Defeat

• we will never accept anything less than complete victory. ~ George Bush (11/30/2005)
• [The Iraqi election is] a resounding success. ~ George Bush (1/30/2005)
• we will stay, we will fight, and we will win in Iraq. ~ George Bush (9/7/2006)
• Mission Accomplished. ~ Presidential banner (5/2/2003)
• we will defeat the enemy in Iraq. ~ George Bush (10/6/2005)
• I believe we'll prevail. ~ George Bush (12/7/2006)

The sad truth is that President Bush is running out of synonyms. Prevail is pretty much the last word available in the English language. Conquer, subjugate, and dominion are still unused but they are a tad harsh. He can reach into the bag of metaphors next time with hit a grand slam, clean sweep, or take the bacon. Well, the last one may not play too well in Moslem countries.

Each word he has used has had to be discarded, tainted by its connection to the Iraq debacle. Even the rich English language is not a bottomless resource for ways to misstate the same failed concept. My suggestion is that Bush start using foreign languages. Jordskredssejr is a fine, Danish word meaning a great victory. It will be fun to hear him try to pronounce it.

I haven't read the Iraq Study Group Report yet

And, I won't until I am feeling so increadibly bored that it is a choice between that and reading the back of the toothpaste tube. If you want to read it you can download it here. Don't buy a copy. After scrolling down 13 pages, mostly blank, to get to the first meaningful text I can tell you with out reading further that the ISG report is not worth killing any trees to print.

What to do When Jack Bauer Is Indicted?

Twenty-six Americans, mostly CIA agents will be indicted in an Italian court for the illegal kidnapping of a Muslim cleric from Italian soil. The cleric was rendered by the CIA to Egypt where he was tortured. It appears to have been a sloppy kidnapping plot, more Clouseau than Bond, as they left behind a trail of clues.

Of course, they all will use that time honored justification for criminal acts under the color of authority, "I was just following orders." This even can't be excused with an "ends justify the means" defense. There is no evidence they got anything out of torturing that cleric except, perhaps, some perverse sexual release. At what point should American officials be held responsibility for the evil they have done "following orders?"

There must be public extradition hearings for these 26 Americans. If government officials want to defend these kidnappers they should do so in open court. If Administration officials ordered these people to violated Italian law then they should stand accused in open court. Will this have a chilling effect on CIA operatives in the future? Will they refuse to commit felonies in the future out of fear they might face criminal charges for their actions? I hope so.

tag: cia

Five Things That Made Me Think

The Lives We've Ruined
The Times of London looks at the lives of six ordinary Iraqis. In Iraq street cleaners are collaborators; picking up trash can get you killed. There is a baker who has been hunted by Sunni death squads because most bakers in Iraq are Shi'ite. A barber fears to trim a beard, barbers are frequently murdered for providing such a service in Baghdad. It is a painful read.

They have taken off their Rose Colored Glasses
The neocon analysis of the failures in Iraq in Vanity Fair are remarkably on target. The descriptions of the Bush Administration by the "founders of the feast" that is the Iraq War is devastating. These people who believed that war would bring Utopia to the Middle East have turned on the monster they gave birth to. They may finally be correct that with the manifest failures in Iraq the worst is yet to come. The final words of the author, David Rose:

One of the reasons we are in this mess is that the neocons' gleaming pre-war promises turned out to be wrong. The truly horrifying possibility is that, this time, they may be right.

Kafkaesque
The blogger BitchPhD looks at the confinement of Jose Padilla and recoils in shame. It doesn't matter what Padilla did, or thought about doing. Even the worst of mankind does not deserve such treatment. It should be noted that the prosecution is begging the judge in Padilla's trial to ban any mention of the condition of his three year confinement because it will prejudice any sane jury against the government.

The Chinese Understand Capitalism...
better than we do. I have not seen any Western economist discuss that virtual currency, money that exists only online, will make it infinitely more difficult to control the real money supply, hence control inflation. The Chinese see into the future much more clearly than Westerners who are obsessed with perfecting the past.

The Onion May Save Us
By printing it first, the Onion may have saved us from the spectacle of the state of Kansas outlawing the fact of evolution, not just the teaching of it. You know there was someone in the state, perhaps a senator with presidential ambitions, who was considering it.

Art is "Thinking Aloud in the Museum of Art" by Howard Hodgkin.

Handicapping the Presidential Race - Republicans

I don’t understands Republicans. I really don’t. How did they every come up with Bob Dole in 1996? How did either Bush, father or child, make it past the doubled over in laughter phase? Yet, they tend to nominate people who frequently win. (For my interest, I have added in red their Tradespot odds as of 12/6/2006.)

Mitt Romney (gov-MA) - 5 to 1 (6 to 1)
Polling in the middle of the field (9%), he has the best growth potential. Walking a tightrope. Trying to appeal to religious conservatives and political moderates (a Mormon from Massachusetts) without appearing to be a liberal religious wacko (a Massachusetts Mormon). Leads the outsider faction.

John McCain (sen-AZ) - 6 to 1 (1 to 1)
Second in most polls at 30%. Crafted the campaign financing laws to advantage himself. Benefits from the Republican habit of nominating the “guy who’s earned it” whether he deserves it or not. See Bob Dole in 1996. He is hated by the rightwing activists who vote in primaries. Too old, will be 72 on election day. McCain's best chance at becoming president is by pulling a Lieberman and running as a third party independent against a Hillary versus Condi, all woman election.

Newt Gingrich (GA) - 8 to 1 (20 to 1)
Polling 9%, Newt is the choice of the movement conservatives, are there any left? Actually, he has a chance in a weak field.

Condoleezza Rice (AL) - 9 to 1 (50 to 1)
Tied at the hip to George Bush, a darling of the neo-cons and pro-war Republicans. Her speaking style is close to unbearable, but, then, so is Bush’s. She is the only real Bush insider in the race. Condi is the hardest person to handicap. She is not mentioned in all the polls but does well when she is.

Tom Tancredo (rep-CO) - 10 to 1 (500 to 1)
The sweetheart of the anti-immigration crowd. Probably lost Florida with his crack about third-world Miami.

Rudy Giuliani (NY) - 12 to 1 (6 to 1)
Leads all the polls (33%) but, come on. His highest office has been mayor of New York City. He is pro-abortion, pro-gay, and anti-gun. His lifestyle is metrosexual so he can forget the social conservatives. His only appeal is among the "9-11 changed everything" crowd. I can’t begin to understand why he is polling so well. Did I mention that I don’t understand Republicans?

Tommy Thompson (WI) - 15 to 1, Jeb Bush (gov-FL) - 18 to 1 (100 to 1), Sam Brownback (sen-KS) 20 to 1 (60 to 1)
Long shots. Thompson (3%) has no base. Never count out a Bush (Jenna for 2032, anyone?), but he is a better bet for 2012. Brownback (2%) is the hero of the creationists.

George Allen (VA) - 80 to 1 (300 to 1)
John Sununu (sen-NH), Chuck Hagel (sen-NB) (90 to 1), Mike Huckabee (gov-AR) (10 to 1), George Pataki (gov-NY) (200 to 1) - all 99 to 1
Bet on Allen running to try to redeem his reputation. Bet on him losing. Hagel and Pataki (1%) are considered RINOs by Republican activists; no chance. Sununu and Huckabee will only run as a gift to comics.

Duncan Hunter (rep-CA) - 998 to 1 (1000 to 1)
Duncan (2%) is my representative to Congress. I know the guy. He is the epitome of the "hail fellow, well met" glad-handing politician. As corrupt as his best friend, Duke Cunningham, but smarter. Losing the chair of the House Armed Services Committee is a major hit to Duncan’s finances. He is running for president to have a second campaign committee to collect and filter money to his family and their retainers.

Michael Smith (OR), John Cox (IL) - 999 to 1
Smith and Cox are just trying to meet women.

Sources: CNN polling data, wikipedia

Handicapping the Presidential Race - Democrats

A caveat, I am lousy at making presidential predictions. In 1974, I didn’t foresee an obscure governor from Georgia would be elected in 1976. I thought Walter Mondale would defeat Reagan in 1984. I predicted failure for the inarticulate, alcoholic son of a failed president in 2000. (For my interest, I have added in red their Tradespot odds as of 12/6/2006.)

Hillary Clinton (sen-NY) - 6 to 1 (4 to 5)
Leads the early polls with 33%. There is a huge anyone-but-Hillary movement (of which I am a member) but she has the best organization of anyone in the race, is a strong campaigner, and benefits from the financial advantages senators have. I will be disappointed if she wins the nomination, but not surprised.

Brian Schweitzer (gov-MO) - 7 to 1 (1000 to 1)
This is a dark horse who isn’t mentioned on any of the polls. He is a successful western governor from a western, presumptively red state. My, albeit western, opinion is that the chances of a long term shift to a Democratic majority lies in making the western states blue. Nominating a western governor could make that happen.

Barack Obama (sen-IL) - 8 to 1 (5 to 1)
Second in the most recent poll (15%). He has more charisma than every other potential candidate combined. He has a John Kennedy aura about him. The question is whether he can maintain the charm for another 18 months.

John Edwards (SC) - 9 to 1 (10 to 1)
Last season’s charmer. His biggest flaw is he has no natural base to work from. Polling 14%

Wesley Clark (IL) - 10 to 1 (90 to 1)
The man with the military creds. If national security is a big 2008 issue, Clark will benefit the most. He has honed his media skills the past two years. Polling 4%.

Al Gore (TN) - 12 to 1 (11 to 1)
My choice. My man. The man who should have been president. His biggest flaw in 2000 was his image as a wooden politician. He has developed a vibrant speaking skill since then. I don’t know why he isn’t polling better than 14%.

Bill Richardson (gov-NM) - 15 to 1 (80 to 1), Carl Levin (sen-MI) - 20 to 1
We are getting into the long-shots. Richardson (3%) wants to be president and virtually nobody has noticed. Levin doesn’t want to run but has a presidential bearing.

Gary Hart (CO), John Kerry (sen-MA) (70 to 1), Tom Daschle (SD) (1000 to 1), Joe Biden (sen-DE) (100 to 1) - 25 to 1 each
The old warhorses. Hart has been out of politics for a generation. Kerry (7%) is personality impaired. Daschle is forgotten. Biden (3%) has been running for president since Lincoln. Nominating any of them is giving up on the general election.

Evan Bayh (sen-IN) (40 to 1), Chris Dodd (sen-CT) (170 to 1), Tom Vilsack (gov-IA) (50 to 1) - 99 to 1
Mike Gravel (AK) - 999 to 1
No hope. They are running out of ego.

Sources: CNN polling data, wikipedia

Someone Stupid, Someone Insane

The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results. ~ Benjamin Franklin or Albert Einstein depending on which source you use. Anyhow, somebody brilliant said it.

President George Bush has told senior advisers that the US and its allies must make "a last big push" to win the war in Iraq and that instead of beginning a troop withdrawal next year, he may increase US forces by up to 20,000 soldiers ~ Guardian, November 16, 2006

Currently, there are 150,000 US troops, with more fire power than God, in Iraq. There is nothing more that 170,000 troops can accomplish. The plan coming from the Bush-al-Maliki is the same as all of the other plans. Just wait one more Friedman Unit (until July 2007) and Iraq will magically become the New Eden.

There is no new insight here. The President of the United States is mad as a march hare.

The Worst Presidential Blunders

Jimmy Carter describing the Iraq War as one of the greatest blunders leads me to wonder where does it rank in history. The University of Louisville did a survey of historical scholars earlier this year and produced this top-ten list. My modest effort is the top five worst policy blunders and the top five worst personal mistakes.

Five Worst Presidential Policy Blunders
1. Buchanan's sitzkrieg before the Civil War
I agree with the U of L here. During his four years a president, Buchanan shattered his party to the point it ran two candidates for president in 1860 (Douglas and Breckenridge) that led to the election of Abraham Lincoln with less than 40% of the vote. In the four months between the election and Lincoln inauguration, he did little more than whine and play whist while seven states seceded and three Federal forts, including Fort Sumter, were captured by Southern milita. The Civil War had been brewing for several years, it is probable that nothing would have stopped it, Buchanan didn't even try.

2. Nixon's Watergate
In 1972, Richard Nixon was going to win reelection in a walkover. The only Democrat, Robert Kennedy, with the charisma to defeat him had been assassinated in June. The was no rational reason for Nixon to approve a break-in of the Democratic Headquarters in the Watergate Hotel that July. I can't decide which was worst, his stupidity or hubris.

3. Bush and the Iraq War
There is a maxim in chess, "the threat is greater than the execution." Your opponent will tie himself into knots if you threaten to capture a pawn. Once you take it he will often discover it was not such a big deal. In the wake of the quick defeat of the Taliban in Afganistan, nations were scrambling to distance themselves from Al Qaeda and radical Islam. They were afraid of what the mighty United States would do next. All the invasion of Iraq proved is that the United States is far from mighty.

4. Hoover and the Depression
Crops failed. Banks collapsed, wiping out the life savings of millions of Americans in the process (the FDIC was a New Deal creation). The stock market crash was the least of the problems. Hoover's response was to increase tariffs (stifling business even more) and to urge large companies to voluntarily help out. None volunteered.

5. Johnson and Vietnam
By 1964, the war in Vietnam had been going on for over a decade with little input from the United States. Eisenhower had rejected any involvement beyond a few military advisors. Generals jonesing for a war to test their new equipment had failed to convince Kennedy to do more than send a few more advisors. Finally, in Lyndon Johnson, the generals found someone who would listen to their prattle. The war would end quickly with the defeat of Communism if we only send a few thousands troops. Then a few thousand more. Then more still. And more again. What is it about Texas presidents and stupid wars?

The 5 Worst Personal Presidential Mistakes
1. Going to the theatre
Abraham Lincoln should have stayed at home and read a good book. By accounts, the play he went to, Our American Cousin, wasn't worth dying to see.

2. Jefferson chosing Aaron Burr as his Vice-President
Thomas Jefferson picked Aaron Burr as his running mate because he need Burr to win New York. Burr used a quirk of the Electoral College to try to steal the presidency. When, after 36 ballots in the House of Representatives, Jefferson finally won, Burr went home to New York in a snit. Afterwards, Burr shot political opponent Alexander Hamilton in a duel and his attempt to foment rebellion in the western territories of the United States led to his trial for treason.

3. Harrison forgetting his coat
William Henry Harrison, the hero of the battle of Tippecanoe, was determined to show his macho at his inauguration. He stood in a biting cold, coatless, for two hours delivering his inaugural address. He caught pneumonia and died a month later.

4. Clinton's loose zipper
How history would have been different if Bill Clinton had just learned how to keep his pants up.

5. Ulysses Grant's Cabinet
No president was a worse judge of men than Grant. His Treasury Secretary, Benjamin Bristow, stole over $3 million in taxes. Another Treasury Secretary, William Richardson, took kickbacks from the man he hired to collect back taxes. His Secretary of War, William Belknap, was caught taking bribes. The list goes on. The hard part is finding an honest man in the Grant Administration.

Sticking It to the Teachers

Teachers are expected to reach unattainable goals with inadequate tools. The miracle is that at times they accomplish this impossible task. ~Haim G. Ginott

What nobler employment, or more valuable to the state, than that of the man who instructs the rising generation. ~ Marcus Tullius Cicero

From National Public Radio - Teachers are taking a hit from a little-noticed change in federal tax law. They will no longer receive a tax break on the classroom items purchased out of their own pockets. Growing up, we all knew that the best teachers would sometimes buy things the classroom needed but the school board couldn't, or wouldn't, pony up for. It was an act of charity for the kids.

To the anti-tax Bush Administration, such generosity is pure evil. Several small countries could be educated with the tax breaks the oil industry has gotten from this government. But, when underpaid teachers use their hard earned cash to help their children learn? Why, no tax is too high to stem such perfidy. (Note: I wouldn't know that word were it not for my teachers.)

Thanks, Anne, for cluing me into this story.

Now For Something Competely Different

So, I'm researching a couple of topics (immigrant camps in San Diego canyons and the November Ugly American Award). Both are complex and both are really depressing. Depressing enough that it is easy to yield to writer's block when it whispers in my ear. To keep my fingers interested in the keyboard I will give my nephew a Thanksgiving gift.

Boy, Was I Wrong!!!
At the beginning of the football season I wrote off the San Diego Chargers, saying they would get no more than six wins. They had let their star quarterback, Drew Brees, go to free agency and his replacement, Philip Rivers, was almost a rookie, and there would be no veteran backup to help train him. The coaching philosophy of Marty Schottenheimer had ossified and the front office seemed determined to squander every advantage and lucky break they had. The defense had a habit of looking fair for three quarters and folding like a tent in the fourth. Sure, there was LaDainian Tomlinson, but as Barry Sanders proved in Detroit, even a great running back can't improve a piss poor team.

I can't tell you how wrong I was. The Chargers are 8-2 and lead the AFC Western Division. Rivers' first season as a starter has made him a star. Statistically, he is just a hair behind Peyton Manning. Like Manning, when Rivers has to take control of the game (like when the Chargers had to score 42 points in the second half to defeat Cincinnati) he controls the game with robot-like efficiency.

The defense is stellar. Even with injuries, gunshot wounds, and suspensions piling up like cordwood, the defenders have managed to hold back the flood. When Shawn Merriman and Jacques Cesaire return the Charger defense will rival the Chicago Bears as the best in the league.

And then there is Tomlinson. Always an artist with his feet, he seemed at times to float above the grass with the way he could cut, this year he has become mythical. Eight touchdowns the last two games, 22 touchdowns in ten games this season (second place has 14). Individually, he has more rushing touchdowns than every other team in the league and more total touchdowns than 17 teams. He has singlehandedly outscored the entire Oakland Raiders football team.

He is setting scoring records that may never be broken. With six games remaining, he is only six scores away from the record for most touchdowns and eight touchdowns from breaking Paul Horning's single season scoring record of 176 points (Horning was the Green Bay Packers' place kicker as well as their starting halfback that season). If he continues his pace of two scores a game, Tomlinson will have 34 touchdowns and 204 points by season's end. The question is not whether Tomlinson is the greatest running back in the game today. That is a given. The only remaining question is whether he is the greatest running back to every play the game. I have been lucky enough to watch Wayne Gretzky play hockey, Michael Jordan play basketball, and Lance Armstrong race on a bicycle. Now LaDainian Tomlinson. What fun.

So, I was wrong about the Chargers. My God! was I wrong! And, I've proven that writing is easy when you are not kvetching all the time and write about something fun.

tags: san diego chargers, LaDainian Tomlinson

I'll Take the Credit

Every year on my birthday (January 1st) a huge parade is held in Pasadena in my honor. Oh, sure, they don't say it is in my honor. They say it is for some football game, but since I was a child I knew the truth. It's all about me.

It is in that spirit that I shall take full and complete credit for FOX Broadcasting's decision to pull the two-part interview with O. J. Simpson and HarperCollins' decision to shelve Simpson's tell-all book on how he slaughtered his wife and an unlucky stranger and got away with murder. Murdoch and company made the decision just two days after I posted my decision to boycott anything involved with the book or interview. I knew I was powerful. Even I didn't know I was that powerful. This must be be what God feels like all of the time.

Rebelling Against an O.J. Christmas

Being a writer I viscerally despise the concept of book banning and book boycotts. This, however, is an exception. The O. J. Simpson tell-all snuff pornography exceeds even my liberal bounds of tolerance. This requires concrete action.

• No HarperCollins book, from any of their imprints, on any subject, by any author, shall ever pollute my bookshelf again. This boycott is complete and total. No Michael Crichton, no Lemony Snicket, none of them. There are more than enough publishers and writers that I need not give a penny of my money to a company that would choose to enrich such a man.
  
• I will not watch a second of the FOX O. J. interview, that's a given. However, I will be very interested in reports on which advertisers buy time on the broadcasts. Obviously, any business that chooses to advertise on that interview has self-selected itself as a business without even a shred of social mores. In a free society, I can choose not to do business with such contemptible companies.
  
• I will inform the manager of any bookstore than places If I Did It on their display tables that I object to its prominent display. I don't believe in censorship so I don't care whether they sell the book. But I strongly object to being slapped in the face with that snuff pornography. If I see the book on display, I will leave and do my Christmas shopping elsewhere.
  

There is no anger here. Just firm resolve.

oj simpson

Bush: Master of Diplomacy

George Bush is in Vietnam demonstrating again his mastery of international relations. It started before he left when the White House web site promoted the visit not by using the flag for the Republic of Vietnam but using the South Vietnam flag - a flag and nation that died thirty years ago when Vietnam was unified. Upon entering Vietnam Bush declared that the mere existence of their country was an object lesson to Americans to never cease fighting in Iraq. He is sorry we stopped killing their parents so soon. If America had the resolve in the 1970's he had today their Vietnam would not exist.

I'm sure it translates into Vietnamese better than it does from Bush-speak into English.

'Stay-and-Pray' Strategy

Hope is not a strategy. Hortatory talk about what the Iraqi government must do is getting old. I mean, I have heard over and over again that the government must do this, the Iraqi army must do that. Nobody disagrees with that. The brutal fact is, it is not happening. ~ Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton

The Administration's strategy in Iraq has devolved into Stay-and-Pray. Nothing we try is working but if we just keep at it a little longer everything will be just fine. Insanity is defined as "doing the same thing and expecting a different result." General John Abiziad, by this reckoning, is quite insane.

The truth is that the current strategy is a failure. Three and a half years after the occupation began the opportunities to adjust the strategies to find a successful result have all been squandered. The blatant corruption of companies like Halliburton, the brutality of mercenary firms like Blackwater USA, the incompetence of the Coalition Provisional Authority have so poisoned relations that anything resembling success is impossible. The only choices are between differing ways to fail.

Not knowing what to do when surprised by a bright light, the deer stood motionless in the middle of the road until run over by a truck.

It is instinctive when faced with a conundrum to stand transfixed, unable to decide what to do next. It is instinct; it is also foolish. Yet this is how Gen. Abiziad stands. Blinded by a dazzling failure, his only thoughts are to not think. Faced with not knowing what to do next, he chooses to do nothing. Stay the Course. Stay and Pray. When Hope transcends Reason, all we have left is prayer.

On Guantanamo Rights and Waterboarding

Compare and Contrast the following statements:

Voice of America News (11/14/2006): The Bush administration says terrorist suspects being held in Guantanamo Bay, Cuba, have no constitutional right to challenge their detention in U.S. civilian courts.

Cpl. Jennifer Smith (translating Mustafa Nasser): All I'm asking for is that you treat me according to the Geneva Convention, and I have all the right to have an attorney.
Major Rosenthal (US interrogator/torturer): Here in Guantanamo you have no rights. ~ Iranian TV broadcast, "Guantanamo", (11/4/2006)

Can you tell the difference between official Bush Administration policy and the image broadcast in Iran describing detention there? Is it any wonder why the world views the United States as an outlaw nation because of our Guantanamo policies?

On an related point, we all know that the interrogation technique of choice in Guantanamo is waterboarding. But, do we really know what that means? At left is a 16th Century engraving of waterboarding back when the people doing it proudly described it as torture.

Here is a description of one victim of waterboarding during the Argentinian Dirty War from the book Torture and Truth.

"You have to talk, this is your last opportunity, and this is your salvation." And then they put me on a table. And I thought, "Well, if they are going to kill me, I hope they kill me pretty soon." They pushed my head underwater, so I could not breathe. They take you out, ask you things, they put you in, they take you out—so you cannot breathe all the time. "Who did you receive this from? Who do you know?" Who can control anything when you cannot breathe? They pull you out, you try to grab for air, so they put you back in so you swallow water, and it is winter and you are very cold and very scared and they do that for a long time.

It is the knowledge that evil men are doing these things in my name that sickens me to my soul.

PS: Regarding the German court charges of war crimes against Donald Rumsfeld. Take the bastard, you can have him.

A Fascinating Iranian TV Drama about Guantanamo

O would some power the gift to give us to see ourselves as others see us. ~ Robert Burns

On November 4, Iranian television broadcast a 39-minute melodrama titled "Guantanamo." It follows a Lebanese doctor (Mustafa Nasser) and an American corporal (Jennifer Smith) from the doctor's torture at Guantanamo Bay prison through the revelation of the Abu Ghraib tortures. The evil antagonist is a satanist American major named Rosenthal. The Middle East Media Research Institute offers the film with English subtitles.

By American video standards it is poorly directed and badly edited. By historical standards it is pure fiction. But it is a fascinating look in the mirror at how we are seen in other parts of the world. Besides, the actress who plays Jennifer Smith has some serious cute going for her. It is worth it if only for the following monologue.

A world dominated by one single nation is a frightening world. 9/11 gave the U.S. a strong pretext for spreading its power over the entire world. Another attack will convince the U.S. that in order to save democracy, you must first destroy it. If you accept this logic, historians will have a hard time explaining why the golden age of democracy lasted only 200 years. We will sadly ask ourselves how human beings like us, through cowardice, could bring the world back to the worst moments of human history. ~ character of French lawyer André Mahfuz in the Iranian TV program "Guantanamo"

Democracies and War

Ann Althouse is depressed by the election. Not because Democrats won but because Americans no longer support the Iraq War. This is how democracies function.

Everybody's for democracy in principle. It's only in practice that the thing gives rise to stiff objections. ~ Meg Greenfield

Unlike Afganistan, the Iraq Adventure was always a war of choice with no significant, or even insignificant, national interests at stake. Winning gains us nothing, losing deprives us of nothing except the spent lives of loyal servicemembers.

From the beginning I've denigrated the Iraq War by describing it as a "recreational war." It was engaged in because the President wanted to, not because the country had to. I knew it would be popular only as long as it was fun. As "Shock and Awe" devolved into a slow, bloody slog people rightfully asked "what are we fighting for?"

What are we fighting for? Even for the Bush Administration that answer has been a moving target. I've heard all of the arguments, all of the reasons that have been given over the years. They all amount to nonsense. We entered the war because we thought it would be easy; we are stuck because it wasn't. (Yes, I know the real reason was an obtuse neocon theory that conquering the Baathist Party in Iraq would create a cascade of democracy throughout the Middle East. That was always nonsense, and they thought it would be easy.)

It is one of the collective wisdoms of democracies that they do a cold cost-benefit calculation when it comes to war. We will fight as long as the benefit of victory outweighs the cost of achieving it. When the costs exceeds any potential benefit, democracies conclude it is best to just cut our loses. This is a calculation that any competent CEO would understand.

When wars are thrust upon democracies (as in WWII) they will fight with a fury dictatorships can't match. When democracies stumble into wars, either through ignorance or arrogance, they had better be successful because democracies do not suffer foolish wars for long.

This is a strength of democracy, not a weakness. The weakness is staying in a war through inertia long past the time it made even a feeble sense.

Adventures in Schadenfreude

I have been enjoying a pleasant wandering through the rightwing blogsphere. They are working through the first stages of grief.

Stage 1: Denial
Certainly the most common thread of denial is the claim that that they didn't really lose at all. The election was not a repudiation of conservativism, just Republicans. Somehow trying to pretend that A doesn't equal B. A lot of Republicans are clinging to Lieberman's victory in Connecticut as proof that the nation really backs the Iraq War and the losses everywhere else were aberrations. Others argue that, if you look back far enough in history, the losses aren't so bad. "If you compare this election to the results in 1862...."

Stage 2: Anger
A startingly number of rightwing bloggers are hoping for a terrorist nuclear attack on New York or Los Angeles to "teach the country a lesson." It seems nothing will make grieving conservatives feel better than reducing a major American city to radioactive slag.

Most of the anger is aimed at Bush. He's a traitor to conservatives for: firing Rumsfeld, for not firing Rumsfeld last month, for saying Nancy Pelosi's name without throwing up on his shoes, for sounding conciliatory towards Democrats. Several commenters (the best of these is from streiff, one of the bigwigs at Redstate) have declared Wednesday marks defeat in Iraq, defeat against Al-Qaeda, even the end of Western Civilization. And it's all Bush's fault!!!!

Stage 3: Bargaining
Not much happening here yet, but it is early. A few writers are looking to win back the Senate by the death of a couple Democratic senators from states with Republican governors. Hawaii, California, and Massachusetts are the most frequently mentioned states. If any of these six senators dies in mysterious airplane crashes in the next few weeks, it was not an accident.

Gleanings from the Exit Polls

Fox News had the proprietary and top secret Edison/Mitofsky exit poll .pdf for the House of Representives available on their website briefly this morning. Long enough for me to download it. It totals the results for all 13,208 interviews on election day.

The Iraq War is now a Republican War
Nothing is more glaring than the result to the question "How do you feel about the U.S. war in Iraq?" Eighty percent of those who disapprove of the war voted Democrat; eighty-one percent of those who approved voted Republican. This is a startling division. Iraq is a one-party war now, plan and simple.

The Youth Belong to the Democrats
Democrats won all age groups but kicked ass among the young. Sixty percent of voters under 30 voted Democrat. This was an 11% improvement over 2002. The best the Republicans did was get forty-nine percent of oldsters (aged 65 and over). The future is voting Democrat.

Republicans are the Party of the Rich
No surprise. Only when you get over $100,000 in total family income do Republican voters outnumber Democrats. But Republicans have lost the middle-class. In 2002, Republicans won the middle-class (household income between $30,000 and $100,000). This year they polled under forty-five percent.

Smart folk have abandoned the GOP
In 2002, 55% of voters with college degrees voted Republican. This year that dropped to just forty-five percent.

The GOP is a Religious Party
Seventy percent of white evangelicals voted Republican. Sixty-one percent of everyone else voted Democrat. Protestants voted Republican (54%), everyone else went heavily for Democrats. Catholics (55%), Jews (87%), and no religion (75%) all voted for the Democrats.

Robo-calls in the Golden State

Living in California (State Mottos: "We Gerrymander the Hell Out of Everything" and "Always Nominate Imbeciles for Governor") has spared me from the great sea of robo-calls that have plagued battleground states. I've only had five to ten a day since Thursday. Who were they from? Damned if I know. If a campaign can't enlist a breathing human to call I won't pay attention.

I haven't been annoyed by them until this morning when I got a 6am wake-up call from some computer masquerading as a nurse. Still don't know what it wanted. Even half-asleep, I don't care how the computers want me to vote.

USS Intrepid Mucking Bottom in NYC

This is a metaphor for the US military under George W. Bush. The aircraft carrier USS Intrepid is stuck in the Hudson River mud. The Intrepid is now a museum ship no longer capable of operating under its own power and, try as they might, the civilian tugboats can't pull her free.

A Cynic's Prediction

Tomorrow, at least one heavily Republican precinct in Virginia or Maryland will have a voter turnout in excess of 100% or at least 110% of the votes cast in a precinct will be counted for the Republican candidate for Senate. Given the nature of human and machine error combined with Diebold vote fraud makes this inevitable.

Grading the November Surprises

There have been a raft of news surprises popping up the fortnight before the election.

A+
Richard Pearle, Kenneth Adelman, and David Frum publically announce their opposition to the Iraq War. These three were the philosophical core of the Republican neocon war crowd in 2002-2003. For them to come out five days before the election is an attempt to influence the election results and encourage Republican defeat. For them to renounce the war they championed, and blame George Bush for it, is huge.

A-
Envangelical White House advisor hires male prostitute and buys illegal drugs. Just when the Republicans thought the had put the Mark Foley kerfuffle to bed (bad pun), behind them (worse pun), this hits them like a two-by-four to the groin. Pile this on top of the previous scandals and it has the potential for being a tipping point story.

B-
The Bush Administration posts nuclear bomb making instructions on the internet. It hasn't gotten as much media play has it deserves but for those who noticed, this clumsy act puts to lie the Republican talking point that only they can be trusted with national security.

C
Military papers call for Rumsfeld firing. Most people won't notice and it is not like 95% of the human race has already call for his being canned. Still, this sends a "support the troops, fire Rumsfeld" message.

C-
George Allen's staff assaults blogger. I'd like to grade this higher but I just don't think it has legs. This story doesn't have any sympathetic characters. Allen's people were thugs; the blogger was rude. No winners. Now, if the blogger had been a little old lady with a walker....

D-
John Kerry can't tell a joke. Sure, this story got more media play than the bombing of Pearl Harbor. I just don't see how it will have any effect. Anyone who stayed awake through the 2004 Presidential elections knows John Kerry can't tell a joke to save his life. Still, it is the Republican's big winner for the week.

F+
Saddam to be found guilty. Show of hands, how many people are expecting him to be found innocent? This would be the non-event of the election season if not for ...

F
Dick Cheney thinks the Iraq War is going swimmingly. So, who thought Mr. Last Throes was going to change his mind now?

Kiss and Tell Republicans

There was a time when I had great respect for how Republicans handled their sexual dalliances. Democrats tended towards prostitutes (Barney Franks), strippers (Wilber Mills), and trailer trash (Bill Clinton) who just couldn't keep their mouths shut. (editor's note: There may be a double entendre here)

(click on the photo for a fascinating political website)

Republicans mistresses were older and uglier than their Democratic counterparts, but they were descreet. You had to respect that. An example of the old way of doing It is George Bush and Condi Rice. You could infer the torrid affair they had from the way they looked at each other and how he would always call her "Condi" while she called him her "husband." You even knew it was over when Bush began coolly referring to her as "Secretary Rice" and she started dating a Canadian. Everyone knew what was happening, but it was still completely hidden.

Now, we have a Republican candidate for Secretary of State bragging about having steamy sex with multiple Green Bay Packers. Duke Cunningham having a Department of Homeland Security limo service ferry prostitutes to his poker parties at the Watergate Hotel. Mark Foley flirting with underaged congressional pages who weren't mature enough to purge their e-mail log files. Finally, there is right-wing evangelical preacher Ted Haggard whose hatred of godless homosexuals compelled him to hire a male prostitute. Several times.

Over the years, if there was anything that Republicans did well it was keeping their sexual peccadillos undercover. It was a point of pride that Republican whores didn't talk. They can't even to that anymore. If they've lost that, they have lost everything.

Dissing the Troops

Republican House Majority Leader John Boehner has laid the blame for all the failures in Iraq at the feet of the soldiers. Forget the botched joke, this is what disrespecting the troops looks like.

This new "Blame the Grunt" talking point conveniently ignores a bushel of facts that places the blame on the civilian leadership:

• Civilian corruption
• The failure to provide adequate supplies
• Rumsfeld interference in war planning
• The army didn't decide to go to war, Bush did
  

I could keep going but I haven't had breakfast and I'm hungry. The bottom line is that the "Buck Stops Here" philosophy of Harry Truman has been replaced with George Bush's "Pass The Buck To Your Underlings."

Bush and the Anti-Sex League

That the Bush Administration is funding anti-sex programs for everyone under the age of 30 should not surprise anyone. This has nothing to do with morality and has everything to do with control.

There is a rising tide of totalitarian governments trying to control the sex lives of their subjects as a way of demostrating absolute control. As nascent totalitarians, the Bushites would naturally want to develop programs to regulate the people's sexuality.

As pointed out by George Orwell in 1984, if the government can deprive people of sexual contact it is easy to refocus their energies. The government (and the Party) will become the sole target of both love and devotion and can use pent up emotions to spread hate and war.

Afganistan's Taliban and Iran's mullahs are well known examples of governments that have invested an inordinate amount of effort in controlling their population's sex lives for just this purpose. The Khmer Rouge in the 1970's went so far as to regulate when married couple could meet and have sex and who every citizen would be allowed to marry.

This is not morality. This is all about who controls your life and your body - you or your government?

Missing Weapons in Iraq

Over 14,000 American weapons are missing in Iraq. Not surprising. Insurgencies throughout history have armed themselves with their enemy's own weapons. Native Americans during the Indians Wars, the French Resistance, and the VietCong all scavenged for their weapons. A powerful occupying army brings in all the weapons insurgents could every use. They just need to get them.

How is it the occupation army in Iraq is losing so many weapons? Some are stolen, others are sold by entrepreneurial Iraqis and Americans. Remember, a large number of Americans in Iraq are paid mercenaries who would think nothing of selling guns to the enemy if it means a tidy profit. The irony is that it is likely that several of the 23,000 casualties in Iraq to date were caused by American weapons sold to the rebels.

One Death Every Three Minutes

Thoughts inspired by an article in Iraq of Tomorrow by Dr. Sayyar Al Jamil.

For three and a half years, every three minutes, another Iraqi needlessly died because of American arrogance and Bush incompetence. With an ill-planned invasion we opened a floodgate of death with no idea how to close the gate or even begin to stem the flow. Twenty-five acres of farmland can be irrigated an inch deep with the blood spilled in this war. Forty thousand tons of flesh have been consumed by the war monster in Iraq. And the rate of death continues to accelerate. It is pleasant to blame Bush and Rumsfeld and Cheney for they have cheerfully bathed in the blood. But we are all at fault. We have stood by while an orgy of death has been played in our name. We have not protested often enough, we have not screamed loud enough. We have allowed the butchers to stay in business for far too long.

The price good men pay for indifference to public affairs is to be ruled by evil men. ~ Plato
To do evil that good may come of it is for bunglers in politics as well as morals. ~ William Penn