Reliving History - Afganistan/Vietnam Perspective

The news that Bush is seeking to replace Iraq's president is just deja-vu to me. Both the Soviet Union during its occupation of Afganistan and the United States during the Vietnam War tried to turn around losing wars with the same tactic and it failed both times.

Vietnam War
On three occasions, the United States change the course of the Vietnam War by changing the leadership of Vietnam. In 1963, the CIA had South Vietnam's long time leader, Ngo Dinh Diem, assassinated. Ngo had an annoying independent streak that frustrated the American leaders who wanted a free hand in the war. He was replaced by a CIA favorite, Duong Van Minh, who was overthrown in a coup by the US Army's choice, Nguyen Khanh. Lyndon Johnson's man, puppetmaster Nguyen Cao Ky, and Ky's puppet, Nguyan Van Thieu, who became Richard Nixon's favorite, followed. The revolving door of South Vietnam leaders marked the ebb and flow by various factions within the United States government for control of the war.

Soviet Afganistan War
This war most closely resembles the United States Iraq adventure. The Soviets installed Babrak Karmal in 1979. By 1986, the Russians had decided that Karmal was too weak to end the insurgency that wracked the country. Mohammad Najibullah was "elected" to replace Karmal. The Russians then stepped up the fighting in Afganistan in the hopes of crushing the insurgency and allow for the withdrawl of the Red Army. It didn't work too well.

Iraq Today
Bush seems to be playing from the Soviet handbook. Could this be the influence of Condi Rice? She is an expert on the old Soviet Union and may be reaching for a solution to the Soviet strategies she knows so well. I feel confident I can predicted the future here. Al-Maliki will be replaced by someone hand chosen by Abdul Aziz al-Hakim - puppet and puppetmaster (Iraq versions of Thieu and Ky). American forces will engage Muqtada al-Sadr's Madhi Army and use that combat to declare victory and withdraw from Iraq (the Soviet component). Iraq will evolve into an Iranian satrap. Iran will control the country but George Bush will have saved face. Oh, and several hundred more American soldiers will die worthless deaths.