Wednesday, January 13, 2016

Presidential Odds

We are three weeks from the most important meaningless event in American politics, the Iowa Caucus. The last two rounds saw Iowa Republicans choose Presidents Mike Huckabee and Rick Santorum so we know it always predicts correctly.

Winning the Iowa Caucus is as significant in choosing presidents as winning the State Fair pie baking contest. And much less tasty. Really, who wouldn't prefer a warm berry pie to Rafael "Ted" Cruz?

The Red odds are from the Paddy Power betting board; Blue odds are my own.

What a mess this field is, a bunch of lame and sickly horses.

Donald Trump 3 to 1 (1.75 to 1)
I once described Donald as the disease-ridden crack whore you might fuck during the summer but not the one you'd want to marry. Well, it's winter and his polling numbers are improving. But he is so hated by Republican power brokers that the official response to the SOTU address was mostly an attack on Trump.

Ted Cruz 4 to 1 (2.75 to 1)
Perhaps even more hated than Trump. Other foreign-born candidates, John McCain and George Romney, got bipartisan declarations that they were eligible for the office.  The growing Cruz Birther movement is being greeted with tacit agreement or sly none-of-my-business comments from his Senate colleagues.

Marco Rubio 6 to 1 (2 to 1)
Supposed to be the Great Establishment Hope but looks out of his depths. Prone to rookie mistakes like vowing to filibuster the omnibus spending bill and then not even bothering to show up and vote against it.

Paul Ryan 6 to 1 -- Mitt Romney 10 to 1 (unlisted)
If the Establishment can get to a brokered convention and Rubio continues to look childlike then these are the likeliest dark horses. Paired with a female veep, either Nikki Haley or Susana Martinez, and we have the kind of dream team the Establishment was hoping for at the start of last year.

Jeb Bush 8 to 1 (9 to 1)
Someone, referring to Bush, recently said that money has to count for something. But, wherever his super PAC has spent big money advertising Bush's poll number have dropped in response. Jeb once expected a coronation, now he talks about not surrendering to the Republican peasantry.

John Kasich 10 to 1 (100 to 1) - Chris Christie 16 to 1 (16 to 1)
Both have a slim chance of rising from deserved obscurity. Kasich's debate performances have been dismal but both are working hard in New Hampshire and if one of them can pull off an upset the billionaires might just throw their fortunes at him.

The rest of the field will see their snowballs chances melt long before they can get them into Hell.


Hillary Clinton 1 to 2 (1 to 6) - Bernie Sanders 2 to 1 (3.5 to 1)
I love Bernie, but....Even if he wins both Iowa and New Hampshire he lacks the resources to compete nationally with Clinton. In an existence with an infinite number of universes, Bernie would win in many of them, but not most of them.

Martin O'Malley 50 to 1 (100 to 1)
If Hillary gets indicted and Bernie falls ill then Martin has a chance.

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