Tuesday, April 14, 2015

Not Excited: 2016 Elections

There's many a slip twixt the cup and the lip. ~ Old Proverb
In April 2007, Hillary Clinton led Democratic polls with 41% followed by Obama (20%) and John Edwards (12%).  She peaked in September 2007 at 53%. It wasn't until March 2008 that Obama was at the top.

Rudy Giuliani led Republicans in April 2007 at 35% followed by John McCain (22%) and Fred Thompson (10%). By June, Fred Thompson was leading the polls. In December it was Mike Huckabee at the top.
The proof of the pudding is in the eating. ~ Even Older Proverb
While Hillary has an insurmountable lead she also has more than enough campaign flaws to give any political consultant chronic heartburn. She ranks high on the testiness scale, not at the Chris Christie level (he peaks the scale), but more along the lines of Rand Paul bitchiness.  She hires consultants who habitually burn through her cash like it was kindling at a wiener roast. Part of the reason she lost in 2008 is that she started running out of money in January. Then there is her luggage, including Bill and the dynasty meme. While much of it is Republican invention there is still enough luggage to give an elephant a hernia.
A donkey can haul only so much.
And the Republicans, if anything, have it worse.

The poll leader with a whopping 16.5% is Jeb Bush. Jeb may have more campaign money than God (Remember, Rudy was a fundraising god in 2007.) but his luggage dwarfs Hillary's (Can you give a continent a hernia?). His dynasty problems are worse than her's too with his idiot brother George tarnishing the very name "Bush." Yet Jeb is so far the only star in a very lackluster constellation.

Ted Cruz, Rand Paul, Ben Carson, Mike Huckabee, and Rick Santorum all give wackadoodles a bad name. Cruz would have to mellow out to be an anarchist while Paul is a mellowed out anarchist. Carson is just a grifter who is demanding appearance fees for his campaign speeches. Huckabee and Santorum both think the world has been going down hill since the 12th century and want to return to a time when heretics are burned at the stake like a loving Jesus intended.
They all make the British 'Monster Raving Loony Party' look sane.
And adding them all together they don't have enough experience to be president of the Rotary Club. Cruz and Paul have been in the Senate for two years and believe their massive talents are wasted there. Ben Carson has never bother to run for any elected post, even the Mayberry Town Council. Huckabee, Santorum, and Jeb Bush have all been unemployed for eight years, longer than my uncle Jasper, and are totally out of touch with the modern electorate.
At least Uncle Jasper understands the plight of urban and rural poverty.
Scott Walker is currently polling second (14%) but may have peaked too soon. People have taken a good hard look at him and noticed there is nothing there. Marco Rubio looks like a veteran compared to Cruz and Paul. He has four years in the Senate. But he inspires all the visceral excitement of a paint drying contest. Rubio's polls will probably peak during the next few weeks in the low teens. Chris Christie peaked years ago but has the rare talent to be equally hated by both Democrats and Republicans.

My much belabored point is that now is way to early to focus on the 2016 presidential race. Wake me six months from now when the grifter, wannabe, and just-wants-to-make-a-statement candidates have done a few preliminary jousts. No one will have dropped out yet and a few more may have entered. By October we'll have a sense of who's legit and what they think is important. There will still be plenty of time to get excited and/or panic over who's the frontrunner.

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