And then there were three. The handicapping is a little different now. In blue are the odds of gaining the Democratic nomination, in (green) the odds of winning the presidency. In {red} are the odds of being elected president as calculated by the Intrade Trading Exchange.
Barack Obama (D-Sen-IL) - 1 to 5 (2 to 1) {1.2 to 1}
The delegate math is the math. It is possible, but extremely unlikely, for Obama's campaign to implode and for Clinton to walk away with the prize without wallowing in the, well you know. As the campaigns stagnate for the next seven weeks with no elections to excite and the funds raised and spent on an endless pre-convention fight, the chances of winning in November dwindle.
Hillary Clinton (D-Sen-NY) - 10 to 1 (20 to 1) {5 to 1}
To take the nomination Clinton will have to go nuclear. The past week was only a hint of what is to come. To win, Clinton must destroy Barack Obama's reputation, she must destroy him as a human being. If she can accomplish that she will, as necessary collateral damage, cleave the Democratic Party.
John McCain (R-Sen-AZ) - (1 to 1) {1.6 to 1}
It is a sweet life. Until at least July, John McCain will be the invisible man. He will be able to raise money, form coalitions, appear presidential (when he appears at all) without being bothered by any opposition. His opponent for November will either be a crippled Obama or a Clinton with a third of the Democratic Party in full rebellion over her tactics. Because of George Bush no Republican can win in a walk but it is possible McCain will need do little more than jog into the White House.
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