Who Cut the Cables?

My maxim is there is no such thing as a coincidence. When something happens once, that is an accident. When it happens a second time, that is curious. When it happens for a third and fourth time, that is deliberate.

Two underwater optic Internet cables serving the Middle East were cut in the Mediterranean last week. The effect of that was to bottleneck traffic to nations from Syria to India. Two more cables were severed in the Persian Gulf this weekend. Adding in these last two have cut off all Internet access to Iran. Oddly, Israel and Iraq are unaffected.

Theories have been offered ranging from ships dragging their anchors to the United States blocking communications to prevent a terrorist attack on the Super Bowl or as a prelude to war. There is also a theory that it was an act of vengeance by a militant band of sea creatures.

The most likely cause is sabotage by the United States and/or Israel to restrict Iranian communications to 1) provide cover for an ongoing spying operation, 2) direct Iranian communications through unsecured paths to facilitate eavesdropping, or 3) to attack Iran's economy. Less likely is sabotage to test Iran's defenses or preparing for an immediate attack. Other possibilities like corporate sabotage or clumsy al Qaeda divers cutting the wrong lines, are far fetched. As for it being just several accidents all happening is the same week, I will believe in terrorist dolphins before I believe this is a coincidence.

Election Update: Super Tuesday voting today means that almost half the nation will be relieved of the burden of support the polling industry, at least for a while. It is time for Texas, Ohio, and Pennsylvania to bear their fair share of Zogby and Gallup dinnertime phone calls.