Benefits from the Republican habit of nominating the “guy who’s earned it” whether he deserves it or not. See Bob Dole in 1996. He is hated by the rightwing activists who vote in primaries.While I overestimated the strength of the wingnuts (so did they), I was right that McCain would get the nomination because he was the "next in line." Reading through the exit polls the last two days has given me no understanding of what his base is.
Regionally, he is weaker in counties where Republicans usually win and stronger where Republicans are losers - that means he is strongest among Republicans who have grown used to minority status and weakest among Republicans used to getting their own way. Even though he has said he wants the Iraq War to continue for 100 years, he is weakest among Republicans who love the war and strongest among those who hate it. There is no unified structure to his voters and, I sense, no passion. His only true strength is with the old guy vote (white males over 60).
On the Democratic side, back in December 2006, I was calling it a coin toss between Hillary and Barack (and Brian Schweitzer) back when everyone else was fashioning a crown for Clinton. Now, if I can figure out how to bottle and sell this skill....
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