Creeping movement in the polls but no paradigm shifts yet with a month until the Iowa caucus. Same rules as before, I'll be offering my odds and, for comparison, in red the odds calculated by the Intrade Trading Exchange.
Hillary Clinton (Sen-NY) - 1 to 2 (1 to 2)
Advantages: Best "name ID" of anyone of either party. Enough money and endorsements to survive several negative hits. Disadvantages: Her name ID is as a Clinton. She is well and truly hated by most Republicans and many Democrats. There is some chattering among the chattering classes that Clinton is in trouble but that strikes me as more fishing for headlines than fact. The biggest risk she faces is a mass revulsion by the electorate of the idea of replacing one family dynasty with a second.
Barack Obama (Sen-IL) - 3 to 1 (3 to 1)
Advantages: Still charismatic. More than enough money to withstand the February mega-primary. Oprah. Disadvantage: Still can't shake the stigma of being a rookie. Obama has to win Iowa, have a respectable showing in New Hampshire, then go into non-stop campaign mode through February. Sleep is for June.
John Edwards (former Sen-NC) - 20 to 1 (16 to 1)
Advantage: Can stand aside and watch Obama and Clinton beat each other into pulp. Disadvantage: Has to stand aside and watch. Obama and Clinton have such big political lungs there is not enough oxygen left for Edwards to breath, let along get a message out. I am reluctant to mention this but it is nonetheless true, Edwards is the most popular white male in the Democratic race. If racial and sexual bigotry surfaces he will benefit. The irony is Edwards would never play that card. (Unlike, say, Giuliani, Romney, and Huckabee.)
Chris Dodd (Sen-Conn) - 1000 to 1 (1000 to 1)
Advantage: I like him. Disadvantage: I'm the only one. In every poll, Chris Dodd has less support than the margin of error. That means it is possible, mathematically, that Dodd's actual number of supporters is a negative number.
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