Sunday, November 02, 2014

Wither the Mid-Terms

Not whither, this election isn't so much a choosing as a dried up mess of compost. In this shit, Republicans will likely prevail.

There Is No Momentum
Nor public flame, nor private, dares to shine;
Nor human spark is left, nor glimpse divine!
Lo! thy dread empire, Chaos! is restored
~ Alexander Pope
The "movement" pollsters are claiming to see is an illusion caused by pollsters shifting their screens to reflect what they think the final electorate will be. I'm not saying they are wrong, most will be accurate within the margin of error plus or minus an addition few percent. It's just not electorate shifts but calculation shifts. These screen shifts reflect the perceived...

Enthusiasm Gap
I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Democrat. ~ Will Rogers
Remember "Hope and Change?" Remember when Democratic candidates could articulate some positive reason for electing them? In the one local competitive race (CA, 52nd CD), Democrat Scott Peters' campaign platform is mostly "don't elect the other guy who is a Tea Party follower and may be a gay sexual predator." Democrats across the country are pretty much saying that this is as good as it gets but Republicans will just make things worse. It's a depressing theme that isn't going to engender much enthusiasm.

October Surprises
If you can keep your head when all about you   
Are losing theirs and blaming it on you,   
If you can trust yourself when all men doubt you,
But make allowance for their doubting too ~ Rudyard Kipling

If you can keep your head when all about you   
Are losing theirs,
You clearly don't understand the situation. ~ Murphy's Corollary

The big election surprises this year, ISIS and Ebola, both played badly for President Obama. They made him look indecisive and ineffective. In both cases he did the right thing in keeping calm and not panicking. But most Americans prefer decisive panic to calm response. And what plays badly for the President is bad for all Democrats because...

Midterm Traditions
The United States brags about its political system, but the President says one thing during the election, something else when he takes office, something else at midterm and something else when he leaves. ~ Deng Xiaoping
Midterm elections tend to go badly for the party in the White House. This is because presidents are never as good in office as we hoped they would be. People are disappointed and have only one way to show their dissatisfaction, voting for the opposition.

I'd like to see a November miracle and have Democrats hold the Senate. I just don't think it will happen. 

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