Mastering the Busby-Bilbray Numbers

Live Journal has a new poll out on the runoff for Duke Cunningham's California 50th CD (they charge, I'm cheap, here it is on MyDD). Busby(D) leads Bilbray(R) 47% to 40%. Previously, SurveyUSA had it a 45-45% deadheat while the first GOP poll had Busby ahead 43% to 37%. With differing methods and high margins of error, do these numbers mean anything?

The best news is this is the first poll after the Republican (ie. vile) attack ads against Busby began airing. It appears the attack ads are having no effect or are blowing back on Bilbray. The crosstabs of the SurveyUSA poll showed Bilbray leading among Hispanics. That will not hold, advantage Busby. Busby has better, but not significant, favorable/unfavorable numbers. There is little more visible through the polling fog.

Upcoming Tread Movers
+ The San Diego Union-Tribune has endorsed Bilbray but that normally has no effect. The Union-Trib endorsing a Republican is as predictable as the sunrise.
+ Bilbray is pegging his campaign on a "Stop the Brown Horde" theme. This will move Hispanics sharply to Busby.
+ It appears that Busby's campaign learned the lesson from the primary election - Get Out The Vote. They have a heavy schedule of volunteer activities. Bilbray has none; in fact, he can't even keep his events calendar up to date.
+ There is no compelling issue or person on the June ballot to draw conservatives to the polls. This will make GOTV difficult for Bilbray since conservatives don't like him.

Bottom Line
Busby probably has a slim lead which, in a safe Republican district, is remarkable. She is running an impressive, street-level campaign. Bilbray has a lackluster fat cat-style Republican campaign that leans entirely on endorsements, conservative talk radio, and vicious attack ads. If effort and intelligence matter, Busby wins. If money and connections are the most important thing in politics, Bilbray will pull it out.
tag: busby, bilbray, 50th congressional district, francine busby

Update (5/18): Had to switch my reference for the Busby-Bilbray poll to MyDD, Crooks & Liars appears to have been hijacked. Pity. See also San Diego Politics.