The Origins of Neoconservativism

If you want to be called an anti-Semite and compared to a slack-jawed Southern Jew-baiter or a Nazi Stormtrooper, all you have to do is notice that most of the guiding lights of the Neoconservative movement are Jewish. While it is true, it should be totally meaningless. Except, that fact is important.

Neoconservative Founding Fathers
The very earliest of the neocons - Irving Kristol, Norman Podhoretz, and Ben Wattenberg - grew up during the Great Depression and World War II. Like many intellectuals of the time, they developed a respect for Communism (some were Stalinists, other Trotskyists) as a way to address the the poverty of the Depression they saw around them. And they were shocked beyond measure by the brutality of the Nazi Holocaust. Put simply, they believed that totalitarianism could do both good and evil. While they grew to oppose Communism, their belief that totalitarianism could be used as a force for good remained. Following the Holocaust, the phrase "Never Again" became a core belief and the drive to insure that Israel never suffer a "Second Holocaust" became a motivating force. Actively warring against all they deem evil is the heart and soul of Neoconservativism; everything else is nuance.

The early neocons felt at home with the Democratic Party. Paul Wolfowitz, Douglas Feith, and Richard Pearle all worked for Democratic Senator Scoop Jackson in their youth. The Vietnam War changed that. As people like me, who believe that war is always evil and should be a last resort moved into the Democratic Party, people who believed war against evil is always good migrated to the Republican camp.

Neocons and War
"Axis of Evil" is a neocon phrase. To neocons, the world is a dangerous place filled with evil and it is America's manifest destiny to wage war against evil. Evil is frequently defined as "a danger to Israel." International cooperation, hence the United Nations, is also evil although it is difficult to understand why they hate it so. They have written that international organizations lead to tyranny but that is an irrational conclusion jumping. More likely, they fear international cooperation because it reduces the unilateral power of the United States to shape the world as we seen fit.

The Neocon/Republican Marriage
Much traditional Republican thought - anti-intellectualism, small government, nativism, and Laissez-faire economics - is considered silly by neocons. They tolerate or ignore them because the traditional Republicans let them pursue their wars.

The current immigration battle between the neocons and traditional Republicans is purely martial from the neocon point-of-view. While nativists see immigrants as an invading army, neocons see immigrants as cannon-fodder. As Americans age, a new younger generation of soldiers will be needed to fight our endless wars. Neocons want to build the new American army out of immigrants. I will expand upon this later.

Coming in the Future
~ Neocons are building a concious alliance with religious fundementalists to create an oppressive central government, each for their own purpose.
~ The Iraq War and the coming war with Iran are Trotskyite "wars of liberation."

There's a Sucker Born Every Minute~ Phineas T. Barnum

Apparently, they make up Michael Savage's (real name, Mike Weiner - I couldn't make that up) listening audience.

The little Weiner is claiming the "fascists" at CSPAN are censoring him by not broadcasting a speech he cared so little about he didn't even bother to show up to deliver it. He sent a recording. He is selling copies of the speech to rabid (i.e. insane with disease) fans for $20 a pop.

Copying costs ----- $3.00
Postage/handling - $2.00
profit margin ------ 400%

A fool and his money are soon parted. ~ proverbial wisdom
There is no bigger fool than a conservative. ~ Knighterrant

Thompson: When a Joke Becomes a Candidate

He has come through it all smelling like a rose. I am certain that will be the next attack - Obama smells too sweet to be President. ~ A Little Reality, May 5

When I wrote the above line I was trying to be funny. What is the most outlandish thing I can think of? How about judging a person's qualifications for becoming President of the United States by how he smells? I figured that was totally absurd. Looks like I underestimated American pundits again.

On June 13, MSNBC's Chris Matthews said of Republican heart throb Fred Thompson, "Can you smell the English leather on this guy, the Aqua Velva, the sort of mature man’s shaving cream, or whatever, you know, after he shaved? Do you smell that sort of — a little bit of cigar smoke?" Chris Matthews, like a closeted homosexual hiding his hard-on, is waxing longingly over how sexy he imagines Thompson smells.

Smittened Republicans will tell you Fred Thompson is the reincarnation of actor turned president Ronald Reagan. Yet, like him or not, Reagan earned the right to be president. Beginning in 1963, Reagan traveled the country giving speeches promoting his conservative philosophy and raising money for Republican candidates. He was elected governor of California in 1966 and served two terms. He ran for president in 1976 and lost. The next four years, Reagan traveled the country giving speeches promoting his conservative philosophy and raising money for Republican candidates.

What has Fred Thompson done? He retired from the Senate to become a full-time actor at the easiest gig in the profession. Pretending to be Manhatten district attorney on TV's Law and Order requires learning a couple of pithy lines a week and reciting them dourly. I would be surprised if his work week is 30 minutes long. Has he spent his massive amounts of free time giving speeches to promote his philosophy or help Republican candidates? Ah, no.

His first real speech in years, on May 7 in California, was such a monumental flop even Robert Novak (who one would expect to be sniffing at Thompson's behind like a basset hound in heat) didn't like it.

What is Thompson's political philosophy? As George Will points out, he doesn't have one. Will writes that Thompson is "99 percent charm, and 1 percent substance." I'm still waiting for that 1 percent to show itself. Thompson has rugged looks, a deep voice, and a musky odor. And he is tall. Republicans believe physical height is a preeminent qualification for public office. Republicans don't seem to care what a candidate believes in as long as he looks, sounds, and smells sexy. I half expect the next Republican debate to include a swinsuit competition.

It doesn't seem possible, but Republicans may nominate the only person on the planet less qualified to be President of the United States than George W. Bush.

Warrior President

I know that I have been critical of President Bush, but I have to agree with Tony Snow today. President Bush has been on the front lines in Iraq almost every day for the past four years.
Here (left) is Bush returning from a bombing mission in 2004. On that mission he single-handedly wiped out four divisions of Iraqi Republican Guard and killed Osama bin Laden. On his return to the aircraft carrier Bush jumped out of his plane in flight to rescue a small child who was going to be accidently struck by one of his bombs. Frightened, the child had jumped in the Tigris River and was drowning. Bush grabbed the child from the river while catching the bomb with his teeth (no photo is available). Bush then jumped back into his plane as it circled at Mach 1.

Here (right) is Bush holding the sword with which, in 2005, he defeated 400 crack Al Qaeda soldiers and killed Osama bin Laden by cutting off his head.

Here (left) is a photo of that time in 2006 when he faced Osama bin Laden at high noon on the streets of Baghdad. Bush waited until bin Laden slapped leather, outdrew the varmit, and plugged him between the eyes with one shot.

Below (down there, not his groin) is our great Warrior President in 2007 pulling the plan for the Iraq surge out of his skull in a painful sacrifice of his own brain cells. After this picture was taken, Bush put down the microphone, went outside, and rescued an Army convoy that had been surrounded by Iraqi insurgents. Bush killed 3,000 of the enemy on that day, including Osama bin Laden. He killed bin Laden twice that time, setting a personal record.

Views from a Corrupt Nation

I live in a nation determined to test whether kleptocracy is a viable form of government. So far, it seems to be working well for rogues and thieves, who are thriving. Honest folk, for the most part, are having a tough go.

A True Heroine
Bunnatine “Bunny” Greenhouse was, and is, a 20-plus year career civil servant with the Army Corps of Engineers. She had the misfortune to be an honest and honorable woman working at a time and in a government where those traits are held in the deepest contempt. Her job once entailed reviewing and approving the massive contracts the Army Corps of Engineers makes with private corporations. Ms. Greenhouse, during the course of her work, discovered a $7 billion no-bid contract between the Army and then Halliburton subsidiary Kellogg, Brown and Root (KBR). The "Restore Iraq Oil" contract was, basically, a gift to Halliburton. Ms. Greenhouse did the job she was paid to do and objected to the KBR contract. As a result, she has been demoted and relegated to a position where she can no longer trouble the thieves both in and outside government.

Ms. Greenhouse has stayed on the job doing the now menial tasks she is assigned. I believe she is hoping that one day sanity will be restored to our government and she will once again be able to use her considerable intelligence and integrity in the service of the nation. Ms. Greenhouse is a true American hero.

Sources: Joshua Frank, Sherwood Ross, Washington Post, San Diego Union

Definition of Bribery

Bribery (n): The practice of offering something (usually money) in order to gain an illicit advantage

Earmarks are a form of payoff, the service rendered for a successful bribe to a congressman. It doesn't matter who has done the earmark, what party he or she belongs to. Both Democrats and Republicans play this corrupt little game. Whenever you see an earmark you have a congressman who believes that he has been bribed.

Mind you, it is almost always perfectly legal. The bribe may be in the form of campaign contributions, donations to faux charities the congressman has, or hiring a congressional relative to a lucrative, do-nothing job. The payoff, the earmark, is inserted into a law passed by Congress, by definition it is perfectly legal.

As an example, from the San Diego Union is a story of one Duncan Hunter earmark. Congressman Hunter, who is running for president to enhance his marketability to potential bribers, is my congressman. I have described him previously as being just as crooked as his best friend Duke Cunningham, only smarter.

Over the years, the California business duPont Aerospace has given Congressman Hunter over $36,000 is campaign contributions. In return, Hunter has earmarked $63 million for the company to produce a piece of crap call the DP-2 airplane. Repeatedly, the Pentagon has opined that the DP-2 is a waste of money. Repeatedly, Hunter, and Dana Rohrabacher (R-CA), have earmarked more money for the project. This $63 million is money that duPont Aerospace would never have received based on the merits of their work. They would not have received a penny of this money were it not gifted to them through congressional earmarks.

Making campaign contributions to congressmen is a great investment. DuPont has received a 1700 to 1 return on their investment in perfectly legal bribes to Duncan Hunter. Try doing that well in the stock market.

The World of Private Prisons

This started as a somewhat lighthearted look at "self-pay jails", the California phenomena where the rich and famous can pay for nice accommodations in privately run jails. Researching that led me to the far sleazier world of corprate-run prisons.

Private for-profit prisons are a growth industry in the United States. Cornell Companies holds more than 18,000 people captive. The largest private prison business is Corrections Corporation of America which holds 70,000 Americans in captivity. Corrections Corporation of America made $1.37 billion in revenue last year.

To feed this profit machine a greater and greater number of humans have to be fed into the system. In 1972, the United States held about 300,000 of its citizens prisoner for crimes. In 1983, Corrections Corp. started doing business. By 1992, the number of Americans held in the nation's jails and prisons had quadrupled to 1.2 million. Last year, 2006, the prison population of the United States had grown to 2.2 million Americans with an additional 5 million Americans on probation or parole. No nation on Earth holds as many of its citizens in prison (second place is China with 1.5 million inmates). Twenty-five percent of all the inmates held in all the jails and prisons everywhere in the world are imprisoned by the United States of America.

These private prisons operate a system of legal, modern slavery. One of the sources of income for these companies is prison labor, paying their workers/prisoners as little as 5 cents an hour. Honda pays prisoner labor $2 an hour to do the work freemen would be paid $30 an hour for. Konica pays 50 cents an hour for prison workers. (source) Prison labor is officially "voluntary," however if a prisoner refuses to work he can be punished with additional prison time (losing "good behavior" points) and the lose of library and recreation privileges.

see also: Not With Our Money, an organization fighting the prison-for-profit movement; Simply Appalling; Disinformation; Prison Labor by Reese Erlich; Profits of Crime; South Texans Opposed to Private Prisons

Original Posting
I guess I have to thank Paris Hilton. Without her I would never have discovered the concept of the "self-pay jail."

Here in California, there is a separate, private jail system for the elite. For $100 a day, the wealthy and connected can get a nice jail cell with no bars run by Cornell Companies. The jailers politely call them "clients" instead of prisoners (I don't know if the jailers are called "concierges."). An evenings-only service (called "work release") is also available for a fee of $70. With this service, the clients need only spend their evenings in the "jail." They are released during the day to go to work or, in at least one case as reported by the Orange County Register, go home and engage in a little recreational homicide. Cornell Companies will point out that all the services they provide their clients must be approved by a judge.

What I'm Working On

Many years, many decades, ago when I was attending college someone would sneak a neo-Nazi newsletter into the campus library and hide it on the shelves. If I saw it, I would read it. Not because I agreed with a single word but because I believed, then as now, that the only way to defeat an enemy is to know that enemy.

Neoconservativism is not a philosophy that will wither with Republican defeat. Their sole philosophy is their firm belief that it is America's destiny rule the world for its own good. Mainly economic socialists, on things like small government or social issues, they have never been a neat fit with the Republican Party. They found fertile ground with Republicans because of that party's innate need for foreign enemies and the ease with which the Republican rank-and-file will become obsequious in support of war. While Holy Joe Lieberman is the most obvious Liberal Neoconservative, he is not alone. It is very possible that a Democratic president will bring into his or her cabinet a fresh crop of stealth neocons.

For the next few weeks or months, I intend to explore and write about the history, conscious, and goals of the neoconservative movement. They are the most dangerous political movement of our time. If I am to oppose them, I must know them.

Since Everyone Else Is Doing It

Here is my mandatory Paris Hilton blog entry. Paris' imprisonment problem may be cocaine withdrawal. I'm really not much into this whole celebrity shick, I find it all rather confusing. I hope this is the correct Paris Hilton picture.

Prelude to US-Iran War? (with update)

The Administration is replacing the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. Under normal circumstances this would be a ho-hum news item. We need to remember, however, that the neo-cons nightly pray for war with Iran. Also, earlier this year several generals flat out told Bush that if he ordered them to bomb Iran they would resign in protest.

Let us ignore Defense Secretary Gates public reasons for replacing the nation's top generals (Public reasons are almost always public lies). Let us look, instead at a more likely reason. Chairman of the Joint Chiefs General Peter Pace has publically stated that the United States has "zero intent" to attack Iran. If Bush's intent is war with Iran, one of his first steps would have to be removing General Pace from his office.

There is no evidence that the proposed replacement, Admiral Michael Mullen, is a hothead. He too has stated there are no plans to attack Iran. Still, it is incumbant upon the United States Senate to insure that Admiral Mullen will refuse to follow any orders to attack Iran or any other sovereign nation without the constitutionally mandated approval of both houses of the United States Congress.

See also Seymour Hersh from last year.

UPDATE: The real news is who is being nominated for vice-chairman. Marine General James Cartwright is currently head of the U.S. Strategic Command. Cartwright has been far more sanguine towards war with Iran. His appointment to head STRATCOM in 2004 was considered strange at the time because the post usually goes to an Air Force or Navy commander. As a Marine, Cartwright had little experience in strategic bombardment. But, as a Marine, Cartwright is a gung-ho, never met a war he didn't like, soldier. Cartwright has driven a space-based weapons program and a plan for America to wage world war with the chilling code name, Global Strike. With Cartwright on the Joint Chiefs of Staff war with Iran becomes much more likely and the use of American nuclear weapons in the event of such a war becomes a near certainty.

See also: two Jorge Hirsch articles [1], [2], Frances Mendenhall, and Dan Plesch

Proof that Gas Prices are Still Too Low

Yesterday I went to Lake Murray after yoga. Lake Murray is a park/reservoir in the City of San Diego that is popular with joggers, bird watchers, and fishermen. The weather was gorgeous. It was sunny, unusual for San Diego in June, mild temperature (mid-70's), with a gentle breeze. It was the kind of day San Diegans wish the Visitors Bureau would just keep our little secret.

In the parking lot was a new, white BMW. It's windows were closed, its motor was running, and its air conditioner was going full blow. I'll know that gasoline has reached its proper price when people begin believing that gasoline is too dear to waste. It is nowhere near that price yet.

Gas prices in San Diego today are $3.28 per gallon.

When the Weird Becomes Bizarre - Iraq Edition

Turkey Invades Iraqi Kurdistan. No surprise. The threat has been there since the initial American invasion.

My question is, since the United States military is supposed to be in Iraq to defend its sovereignty, and the Kurds are our only really friends in that country, shouldn't we expect the army to disengage in Baghdad and move north to defend Iraq from this foreign invasion? At the very least, it is embarrassing to see a country we occupy invaded by someone else. I mean, where's the respect?

Why I Don't Care about the Presidential Debates (and what to do about them)

1. They are not "debates," they are serial press conferences. The debate structure used by both parties is to have a panel of "moderators" ask questions which the candidates answer. This format is guaranteed to be superficial. It is designed for the consultant's favorite trick, deflection. If he asks you about the Iraq War, talk about the weather in Portugal. Hence the feeling that no one is answering the questions.
   
2. They are not focused. They have a scattergun concept. Now a question on the war, now one on health care, now the deficit. There is no attempt to stay focused on a single subject long enough to get beyond a few handy catch phrases.
3. The moderators/questioners are, for the most part, buffoons. The result is that many questions are attempts at "gotchas" that end up simply silly. (Is Wal-Mart a good or bad thing for America? or What do you dislike about America?) The best response to questions like this is to look at the interviewer with a bemused expression and say, "Now, that is a stupid question." If we must have a question/answer format, then bring in a questioner with a substantial mind, like Edward R. Murrow. (Yes, I know that Murrow is dead but, even in his current state, he has a more active and probing mind than Chris Matthews or Wolf Blitzer.)
4. It is impossible to have a debate with eight debaters. These are just cattle calls, talent shows for older folk who can't sing. The only things that can be gleaned from watching are vague impressions. (Wow, John McCain is really bald. Do ya think Mitt Romney is a robot? I didn't know Obama was so tall. Dennis Kucinich kinda looks like a hobbit.)
   
5. The major candidates are diminished by appearing with the flotsam. I know that's a demeaning comment. I don't just back major candidates, have often backed people who were not the consensus choice of the media. Still, does it make Hillary Clinton look more presidential standing next to Mike Gravel?
   

So, What Would I Do?
No one has asked me to draft presidential debate formats and I wouldn't respect anyone who did. However, there are many scholastic debates formats that have been proven effective at encouraging enlightened discussions.

1. The role of the moderator should be to moderate. Keep the candidates to their time limits and punish them for interrupting. That's it. No jokes, no trying to upstage the candidates, no silly questions.
   
2. Limit a two-hour debate to no more than 4 topics. The topics are chosen by the candidates. In a two-person debate each candidate would select two topics. In an eight person cattle call, give the candidates a list of twenty topics and ask them to rank them. The top three or four are chosen. Part of examining a candidate is the topics he/she considers most important.
   
3. Devote enough time to a topic to gain some depth. Five minutes is barely enough time to express a complex thought on a intricate issue. Two hours, eight people, three topics equals five minutes per candidate per topic. Asking for one-sentence responses is absolutely insane. Ideally, two candidates will go back and forth on a topic for half an hour before moving on.
   
4. The candidates know the topics ahead of time. Whatever is the source of the inane notion that the candidates should not know the questions ahead of time? It only encourages sloganeering. A properly formatted debate gives ample time for thinking on one's feet without keeping the candidates ignorant of the subjects. Let's make presidential debates open-book tests.
   
5. Allow/encourage the candidates to ask questions of their opponents. This is supposed to be a debate, damn it, where we are trying to identify the differences between the candidates.
   

In two (or three) person general election debates, I would like to see a variation of the classic Lincoln-Douglas debate format.

• Candidate A: 5 minutes to present his position on the topic
• Candidate B: 2-3 minutes to ask questions that Candidate A must answer on the spot
• Candidate B: 5 minutes to present his opposition to the topic
• Candidate A: 2-3 minutes to ask questions that Candidate B must answer on the spot
• Candidate A: 4 minutes to rebut Candidate B's position
• Candidate B: 6 minutes to rebut Candidate A's positions and present closing comments
• Candidate A: 2 minutes closing comments
• Repeat, alternating which candidate starts
  

That is 28 minutes per topic, enough time to cover four indepth topics in two hours.

This system would not work in the pre-primary cattle calls. Best is a simple round-robin format where each candidate is given 4 minutes to address the topic. The candidates may gain an addition 30-seconds to ask a question of one specific opponent who is then given 30-seconds to respond.

If I were king, this is how I would format our presidential debates. Of course, if I were king we wouldn't need any presidents.

Congressman William Jefferson is Indicted

...on 16 counts of racketeering, soliciting bribes and money-laundering. Highlights of Congressman Jefferson's career include being videotaped by the FBI taking a briefcase with $100,000 in bribes and hiding $90,000 in dirty money in his congressional office freezer. Jefferson is a blight upon the Democratic Party and it is about fucking time he answer for his crimes.

Airport bomb plot...Really??

Maybe I'm just jaded, but I am really getting tired of all these terrorist plots that garner massive headlines on how our ever vigilant government has saved us from a horrible fate. Only later, we find out these "plots" were just a handful of dudes chatting each other up.

In the Kennedy Airport plot the "mastermind" had been talking about his plan for a decade, since he was fired as a cargo handler. In those ten years, he hadn't so much as bought a firecracker let alone enough high explosives to even dent an airport fuel pipeline.

In the Sears Tower plot last summer, the FBI funded the terrorists, even going so far as to buying them new boots. The only one of the seven conspirators who had even been to Chicago was brought into the plot by the FBI. The FBI had to nurture the plot, perhaps they even created the plot, before they could break it up.

The plan to bomb and flood New York tunnels last year had not gotten any farther than three people texting each other on the subject in an open internet chat room. The Fort Dix plot was revealed when the conspirators took a tape of themselves playing paintball into an electronics store.

These plotters are less frightening than the yellowjacket buzzing outside my window. These so-called terrorist threats are less dangerous than driving down to the corner Kristy Kreame. My question is, when will the newspeople learn they are being manipulated by Justice Department media flacks hyping nonsense into major threats?

Clinton or Bush?

A quick observation before I wander off to experience what, for lack of a better term, I shall call my life.

There is a a poll over at Redstate, that somewhere to the right of Henrich Himmler website, that asks its readers which they would prefer, the last two years of Bill Clinton's presidency or the last two years of George Bush's. As of now, Bill Clinton is winning 61% to 39%. Even Republicans are beginning to look back nostalgically on the Clinton years.

The Conscious of a Conservative

In the event you hold the belief that conservatives are a breed of human that should be allowed to mingle in polite society, I offer this argument to the contrary.

IMAO offers an elegantly simple solution to the immigration debate - destroy Mexico. Further, he would compel Mexican immigrants to do the deed, forcing them to "slaughter their former country men [and] raze the villages of their former countries (sic)" to display their loyalty to the United States. Lest you think that this is just one loon with a decidedly demented sense of humor, please note the several comments, all favorable, to his posting. For conservatives, this plan has legs. The photo is what conservatives envision as the fate of Mexico, someday.

Mad Government Hides Mad Cows

Republicans believe in free enterprise, the market place of ideas, providing customers with choices, and freeing businesses to do what they believe is the best way to conduct their business.

Hogwash! Nothing could be further from the truth. Republicans believe in state socialism for large corporations. Consider the case of the small beef producer Creekstone Farms. They had wanted to test all of their animals for Mad Cow Disease to insure they only sell the highest quality product. The large beef producers are afraid that if Creekstone tests all of their animals it will give them a competitive advantage. The U.S. Department of Agriculture, supporting big business against small business and fighting to keep customers ignorant, has gone to court to prevent Creekstone Farms from testing their animals. (for more on the organic foods movement, see here)

This is an impressive crowd. The 'haves' and 'the have-mores.' Some people call you the 'elite.' I call you my base. ~ George Bush at a black-tie fundraiser in 2000

This is not an isolated example. The push by Republicans to aide Walmart in driving small businesses into bankrupcy is well know. Walmart is one of a several huge corporations (Halliburton is another) that have incestuous relationships with the Republican government. There is a word that describes the economic structure of the United States today. It is not "capitalism," the word is Oligopolism, an economy that is driven by a few, extremely large businesses.

Zoellick Picked for World Bank

I can't say I didn't predict this because, hell, I did predict this. One of the early advocate of "regime change" in Iraq, Robert Zoellick is a philosophical clone of Paul Wolfowitz. He believes in United States unilateralism and that the world is divided into two camps - those who acquiesce to the United States on all matters, and evil-doers. He has been a strong advocate of "free trade" but only insofar as United States businesses gain advantage from it.

As president of the World Bank, Robert Zoellick will see and use the World Bank as an extention of United States foreign policy. He will be good for Darfur (which has been his cause for a while), and will probably use the World Bank to pound third-world countries into servile obedience to the United States. He will be better than Wolfowitz, but that is not praise. It is like saying that lung cancer is better than cancer of the liver.

Some days, I can't help feeling like Marvin

Last month saw 117 coalition solders die in the War Without End in Iraq. That was the most deaths since January, 2005. This month, we have 121 deaths (116 of them Americans) with two more days yet to go in this month. More Americans have died this month in Iraq than any time since November, 2004. It is not just endless, it is endlessly getting worse.

The first ten million years were the worst, and the second ten million years, they were the worst too. ~ Marvin the Paranoid Android from the Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy

Monica Goodling's Shirley Temple Defense(or, was it her Hannibal Lecter defense)

It was so well played that I have to admit I missed this until it was pointed out by Dahlia Lithwick and Emily Bazelon. Monica Goodling played a role during her Congressional testimony. With a trembling voice and the hint of a sob, Goodling performed the part of a helpless little girl to the hilt. She knew nothing of any criminal conduct because (silent sob) she was just so child-like and naive. To listen to her testimony, Goodling was little more than the Justice Department concierge and never had an inkling what those big, nasty men were up to.

The reality is that employment in this administration, and especially in this Justice Department, requires a narrow skill set. They are looking for people with not just a talent for lying, but the practiced arts of a sociopath or a psychopath. The ideal job applicant can weep sensitively about the pain you are suffering while pulling his own the knife from your gut and wiping the blood from the blade. Compare this discription to White House personnel and try to find any discrepancies.

Profile of the Sociopath

• Glibness and superficial charm
• Manipulative and Conning ~ They never recognize the rights of others and see their self-serving behaviors as permissible.
  
• Grandiose Sense of Self
  
• Pathological Lying ~ Has no problem lying coolly and easily and it is almost impossible for them to be truthful on a consistent basis.
• Lack of Remorse, Shame or Guilt
• Callousness/Lack of Empathy
• Poor Behavioral Controls/Impulsive Nature ~ Believe they are all-powerful, all-knowing, entitled to every wish, no sense of personal boundaries, no concern for their impact on others.
  
• Irresponsibility/Unreliability ~ Not concerned about wrecking others' lives and dreams. Oblivious or indifferent to the devastation they cause. Does not accept blame themselves, but blames others, even for acts they obviously committed.
  
• Criminal or Entrepreneurial Versatility ~ Changes their image as needed to avoid prosecution.

Simple Rules for Surviving this Old World

Survival is one of the principal motivating factors in life, generally ranking with eating, sex, and playing video games (not necessarily in that order). In order that people may survive more easily (and, hence, overpopulate the planet and necessitate a thermonuclear war) I have drawn up a series of easy-to-follow rules for survival.

1. Never unnecessarily piss off a lawyer, writer, or billionaire
Lawyers can always be counted on to find some obscure legal text with which to torment you.

Did you know that in Illinois, it is illegal for a woman to address an unmarried man as "mister." Women must use the word "master." Source

A writer can always weave you into his next novel with some disgusting or insulting trait and you can’t do anything about it. See the "small penis" rule.

Billionaires don't need to be subtle. They can simply crush you like the insect you are.

"You have undertaken to cheat me. I won't sue you, for the law is too slow. I will ruin you." ~ Cornelius Vanderbilt in a letter to a former business associate in 1853

2. While you're at it, don't piss off gansters, either
Just common sense, really, to stay on the good side of people who make a habit of killing for fun and profit. There is a story (hopefully apocryphal) about a waiter who took the drink away from a Russian Mafioso too soon. The mobster punished the waiter by forcing him to drink 27 liters (7 gallons) of Coca-Cola.

3. Beware of baldness
When Britney Spears shaved her head most people were bemused at the wacky celebrity. The proper reaction should have been bone-chilling fear. Three stories: In 2006 a Bald Elvis act in Wales received death threats from outraged Elvis fans. The ancient Greek playwright, Aeschylus, was killed when an eagle dropped a tortise on him, believing his bald head was a stone. In Missouri after the American Civil War, the Bald Knobbers was such a frightful terror group even the KKK was afraid of them.

4. Don't deliver pizza
There are other jobs. I hear homelessness is a growing profession. Pizza delivery is not just generically dangerous, things can get really weird out there. In 2003 in Pennsylvania, three guys tied a bomb arould the neck of a pizza deliveryman and told him to rob a bank for them. The deliveryman failed as a bank robber and the bomb blew up. There is a story I can't (and don't want to) confirm that devil worshippers in Buenos Aries ate their pizza deliveryman down to the bone because he was late with his delivery and they had gotten really hungry.

Who Fired the Attorneys?

Whenever I hear another Justice Department official testify he/she was barely involved and that "someone else was responsible" for firing those eight federal district attorneys, I see this Thomas Nast cartoon. "Who did it? 'Twas the other guy."

Yeah, right. And pigs fly.

Playing With the Budget Deficit

There is an interesting website, the National Budget Simulation, that allows people to play with setting priorities for the gigantic United States government budget. Want to try to balance the budget on the backs of the poor or give the wealthiest one percent of the country the tax breaks they deserve? You can test how your social goals would budget out here using the 2006 budget numbers, starting with a budget of $3.748 trillion and a deficit of $401 billion.

Military Spending
I would cut $208 billion (37%) from the nation's military spending, including completely eliminating funding for the Iraq War. "What," you say, "how can you leave us naked before our enemies?" That will still leave the United States spending $350 billion on our military. That is more than five times what the second place country, China ($63 billion), spends. We would still be spending as much as China, Russia, the United Kingdom, Japan, France, Germany, India, Saudi Arabia, and South Korea are spending combined. That should be more than enough.

Military Retirement
Increases in medical care and veterans education will increase this line by $4 billion (3%).

International Affairs
Did you know that the United States spends more money supplying weapons to other countries than Spain spends on their entire military? Eliminate that deadly waste and increase spending on humanitarian efforts by $3 billion and we can cut this line item by $7 billion (22%).

Science, Energy, National Resources
Doubling the money spend on energy and land conservation, pollution control, and parks will add $22 billion to the budget. Increasing the science budgets by 10% and I would increase all of these budget items by $24 billion (a whopping 43% increase).

The rest of the budget
I would add $2 billion to community development and disaster relief, $6 billion to education, $7 billion to health spending, and $21 billion to aid low-income families. I would increase spending to help the most vulnerable Americans by $15 billion (about 4%). I would also cut $6 billion from the Justice Department since they are spending too much money spying on innocent Americans.

Adjusting Taxes
Eliminating the Bush tax cuts on the top one percent of taxpayers would bring in $117 billion in additional revenue. Increasing the tax cuts going to the bottom sixty percent of taxpayers would only cost $4.6 billion. Corporate tax breaks cost the country over $60 billion annually.

Looking at the totals
Between decreases in spending in the art of war and increases in spending on the environment and the less fortunate, I would cut spending by $157 billion. Reducing the tax cuts given to the richest Americans and the tax breaks given to mighty corporations, would increase revenue by an additional $170 billion. All totaled, I would reduce the budget deficit from $401 billion to just $75 billion. And that is me being extremely moderate.

The radical me would have no problem cutting the United States military budget in half and balancing the rest of the budget on the backs of the extremely wealthy.

What the Rest of the Hemisphere Thinks of America

Oh that God the gift to give us, to see ourselves as others see us. ~ Robert Burns

I am an unbelieving member of a society that believes God has given the United States the holy mission of molding the rest of the world in our image. It is a society that doesn't even have the common decency to ask first before imposing our will upon our neighbors. 'Please,' 'thank you,' and 'I'm sorry for screwing up you country' are words that don't exist in our diplomatic lexicon. Most Americans don't even bother reading other country's newspapers before deciding that America knows best. Thanks to Watching America, let's take a look at what the rest of the Western Hemisphere thinks of the Great United States.

The Intolerable Wolfowitz
La Nacion, in Chile, points out that Paul Wolfowitz did not just bring his neo-con insensibilities to his job at the World Bank. He brought an entire staff of like-thinking sycophants. "He contaminated the World Bank with his favoritism and the imposition of politics that were used to eliminate his adversaries."

Brazil's O Globo observes Wolfowitz's arrogant disregard for the knowledge and experience of anyone beyond his small circle of confidants. "Wolfowitz (and Bush) are stubborn, dogmatic and stupid. These are very bad qualities for those who wish to transform the world and international relations in their own image."

Angering Ecuador
John Negroponte's failed visit to Ecuador was the topic of an article in El Comercio. Negroponte is not a welcome figure in much of Latin America because of his ties to right-wing death squads in Honduras during the Reagan Administration. The visit was also tainted by a recent dispute over the United States' lack of respect for Ecuadorian sovereignty. "[Ecuador President Rafael] Correa, who said this weekend that the Ecuadorian Navy was not part of the navy of the United States."

American Terrorists
Mexico's La Jornada sees the attack on Latino marchers by Los Angeles police on May 1 as part of a systemic growth of violence against Mexican immigrants. "The growing wave of xenophobia and racism against Latinos in the United States is not a series of isolated incidents: it is nourished by Washington's deliberate policy of criminalizing immigrants."

Bush: initiated one war, lost three
Argentina's Argen Press and the Edmonton Sun in Canada both state what is obvious to everyone else in the rest of the world, the United States is lost in Iraq and, because of that war, has lost much more. Argen Press compares George Bush to other American presidents and comes to the same conclusion as did Jimmy Carter, "The nation, once indulgent of his [Bush's] lies - lethal lies for over 3,000 of its own sons and daughters - no longer believes him. No U.S. President has ever harmed his country as much."

As for Canada, their opinion of the Iraq War is stunningly simple, "the 'mission' whatever it may once have been, will never be 'accomplished.'"

A Blood-Curdling Document

The National Continuity Policy directive is a load of bureaucratic gobbledygook, unintelligible on a quick read but when studied closely it is mostly meaningless twaddle. That is because the meat of the directive is top secret.

The purpose of the policy is to define the nature and scope and triggers of martial law where the President takes direct control of all aspects of government and private life. This being a democracy and all, one would expect that, above all else, such a document would be extremely public. However, among the few meaningful clauses in the document are the last two:

(23) Annex A and the classified Continuity Annexes, attached hereto, are hereby incorporated into and made a part of this directive.

(24) Security. This directive and the information contained herein shall be protected from unauthorized disclosure, provided that, except for Annex A, the Annexes attached to this directive are classified and shall be accorded appropriate handling, consistent with applicable Executive Orders.

Of course, not even Annex A is a publicly available document.

So, why is this a problem? Shouldn't the President take charge in the event of a massive attack like, say, in the movie Mars Attacks! when President Jack Nicholson reassured the nation, "I want the people to know that they still have 2 out of 3 branches of the government working for them, and that ain't bad."

That brings us to the other meaningful parts of this document. In Definitions:

(b) "Catastrophic Emergency" means any incident, regardless of location, that results in extraordinary levels of mass casualties, damage, or disruption severely affecting the U.S. population, infrastructure, environment, economy, or government functions;

The trigger can be limited in location. By this definition, Hurricane Katrina would have qualified, certainly there was mass damage. The 1995 bombing of the Murrah Federal Building in Oklahoma City qualifies as it disrupted government functions in that location. The triggering event can be anything. Even a nationwide Teamster's strike could be said to severely disrupt the economy. The impeachment of the President could be defined as an incident that disrupts government functions. Hence, Bush could use his own impeachment as a trigger to declare martial law.

The definition of a Catastrophic Emergency is so vague that, while it is not quite carte blanche (more like carte beige), virtually any significant event anywhere in the country could be used as an excuse for the President to grant himself dictatorial powers. And it is not just dictatorial power over government, the policy's stated purposed also includes control over "private sector organizations."

Then there is this clause:

(e) "Enduring Constitutional Government," or "ECG," means a cooperative effort among the executive, legislative, and judicial branches of the Federal Government, coordinated by the President

Under this policy, the President will declare himself first among equals, empowered to "coordinate" the actions of the legislative and judicial branches. They will still exist, but they will be subordinate to the President.

The real devil is in the details, so why are the details kept top secret? The only reason is to prevent the American people from knowing just exactly how our 200 year-old democracy will be terminated.

Other sites discussing this:
Daily Kos
Crooks and Liars
The Progressive
Democratic Underground
Postman Patel

After Wolfowitz, Who?

George Bush has made it his habit and practice to nominate clowns and imbeciles whenever he has the opportunity. Not going too deeply in the the reasons for this (when you are fatuous moron, imbeciles stike you as highly intelligent), let's look where the names being floated to replace Wolfowitz as head of the World Bank rank on the Competence Scale. (0=Paul Wolfowitz; 100=James Wolfensohn, his esteemed two-term predecessor)

Robert Kimmitt ~ 5
Most frequently mentioned in the speculation game. A party hack who has bounced around the Treasury and State departments when Republicans were in power, and bounced around the private sector as a powerless figurehead when Democrats were in power. He spent three years in middle management at Lehman Brothers so he probably knows some financial jargon, and he was on a World Bank Panel of Arbitrators so he may remember where the offices are.

Robert Zoellick ~ 15
Marginally qualified. He was the United States Trade Rep for several years and was hired by Goldman Sachs to head their International Advisors department. Zoellick is also a neo-conservative and philosophical clone of Wolfowitz. He would bring the same idological baggage as Wolfowitz with a modicum of actual financial experience.

Henry Paulson ~ 80
Over 30 years at Goldman Sachs, his last five as their CEO. Previously a member of the International Monetary Fund's Board of Directors. Currently is the Treasury Secretary. Paulson has actually run an investment firm the size of the World Bank. Paulson head the selection process to replace Wolfowitz. He would make an excellent choice, which is why I doubt he will be picked.

Stanley Fischer ~ 75
Formerly a Vice-Chairman at Citigroup, a Deputy Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund and the Chief Economist at the World Bank. Currently Governor of the Bank of Israel. Another excellent choice.

Paul Volcker ~ 60
Highly qualified. Besides being a former President of the Federal Reserve he was chairman of Wolfensohn & Co., the investment firm of the esteemed former World Bank president. His only negative is that Volcker is now 79 years-old.

Bill Frist ~ 0
Richard Lugar ~ 0
Jim Leach ~ 0
Three politicans, two of them unemployed politicans. None of them has a single qualification to run an international investment bank.

My guess - if Bush has his way he will appoint Zoellick, if Paulson has his way the appointment will go to Fischer. If Bush wants to send a great big "Fuck You" to the World Bank, he will choose Bill Frist.

Pity Poor San Diego

San Diego, my little corner of the universe, has never been a hotbed of honest government. In 2005 we had one mayor resign because of a pension fund scandal and, three months later, his replacement was found guilty of taking bribes.

Election Plague
This time around, we look to be trying to corner the market on election fraud. San Diego recently hired Michael Vu, famed in Ohio for screwing up Cleveland's elections. They topped that by adding Deborah Seiler, a former Diebold sales rep. The experience of her time in Solano County, where she worked for three years, seems to prove that "once a Diebold sales rep, always a Diebold sales rep." Both these people will work for acting Registrar of Voters Mischelle Townsend, who made a scandal out of Riverside County elections. With this triumvirate supervising San Diego elections one thing is certain, voting will be a waste of time. These three will decide who will win weeks before the vote and then rig the numbers to fit.

Death for Hire
There won't be anyone protesting the elections if local planners have their way. Blackwater USA, the famed mercenary army, wants to build a military base in San Diego's backcountry. Blackwater is getting an accelerated environmental review and a general fast track from the Potrero Planning Group. It is true that every member of the Planning Group is facing a recall over this but, they don't need to worry. The people who will be counting the votes on any recall election are the trio in the previous paragraph. "Forgone conclusion," anyone? The only question is whether the trio will rig the count gratis or for future considerations.
San Diego's elections promise to be the least honest, least disputed elections in the history of the Western Hemisphere. Once those black-shirted mercs start marching around, who will have the courage to disagree with election results?

It's Somebody Else's Fault

Blaming someone, anyone, else has become such a frequent retort from Republicans I have begun to wonder whether having a ready supply of scapegoats is a prerequisite for membership in the party. One thing is certain, being a Republican means never having to take responsibility.

The "Clinton did it, too" defense has been used to justify everything from war to corruption to the political purge of federal attorneys. It doesn't matter that Clinton never did half of the things Republicans give him credit for. "Clinton did it, too" is such a common refrain I suspect Karl Rove has the words tattooed on his butt so White House personnel will see it during their daily devotionals.

It seems Alberto Gonzales has been asleep during his tenure at the Justice Department and all the mistakes are the fault of his aides. Daddy Bush blames bloggers for his incompetent son. I had thought that blaming the troops who are fighting and dying in an impossible situation for the failures in Iraq was the sickest depths Republicans could sink to. I was wrong.

Yesterday, Paul Wolfowitz reached new depths blamed his girlfriend for all his troubles at the World Bank. Apparently, according to Paul, Shaha Riza is such a shrew she terrified the World Bank ethics committee and only a $50,000 raise could calm her outrage at being forced to behave ethically. I would have loved listening to the conversation those two lovers had last night.

Postage Rates Rise

And, I mean really, who cares? Who cares about the daily home delivery of scraps of paper anymore? If I want to send a personal note to a friend I don't write a letter, I write e-mail. It is faster, cheaper, and more reliable. My mail mostly consists of:

• catalogs from businesses I have never heard of, let alone would I ever buy from them,
• solicitations to donate money to charities I didn't even knew existed,
• solicitations to donate money to charities I gave to once in the distant past and now just won't leave me alone,
• bills from a handful of old-fashioned organizations that have never heard of electronic fund transfers.

I remember from my days working with nonprofits that mail solicitations are mostly a wasted effort. The return rates is about 2% - meaning between the cost of postage, printing and processing those fancy 4-color flyers, and handling the whole mess, the sucker who responds needs to donate at least $20 just to pay for the other 49 people who threw the junk away.

Selected postage rates ~ look here for the full list of rate changes

• Prior to 1958 ~ fluxuates between 2 and 3 cents
• 1958 ~ 4 cents (the penny postcard now costs 3 cents)
  
• 1963 ~ 5 cents
• 1968 ~ 6 cents
• 1971 ~ 8 cents (the first 2 cent rate jump)
• 1975 ~ 13 cents (a 62% increase in 4 years)
• 1978 ~ 15 cents (the penny postcard now costs a dime)
  
• 1991 ~ 29 cents
• 2006 ~ 39 cents
• 2007 ~ 41 cents (postcards now cost 26 pennies)

Although, it could be worse. In Germany in 1921 postage cost 0.60 marks. By November 1923 it cost 80 billion marks to send a letter. This is a 5 billion mark postage stamp.

Five Dead, Three Missing

An entire squad of American soldiers was attacked south of Baghdad, leaving five dead and three missing. Although there is a massive search for the missing soldiers, they are almost certainly dead as well. This is something I have expected ever since I learned that the tactic of the Surge was to embed squad teams (9 or 10 soldiers) with larger Iraqi forces and using squads as "street corner cops" in deadly regions of Iraq. These units are too small to defend themselves if they are attacked or if their Iraqi allies decide to turn upon them.

The small size of the attacked unit (seven soldiers plus an Iraqi interpreter) is interesting. Either this unit had already suffered casualities and had been sent out undersized, or the Army is spread so thin they are breaking up squads into even smaller units for these assignments. Either way, this type of attack was inevitable. More such attacks are certain as long as this Surge tactic continues.

Fire in the Sky

Twenty-six miles across the sea
Santa Catalina is a-waitin' for me ~ the Four Preps (1958)

Santa Catalina Island is burning down. Catalina is the biggest of the Channel Islands one stride (in seven league boots) offshore from Los Angeles. Home to the Gabrielino tribe before the Spanish conquest of California and refuge for smugglers afterwards. In the years before World War II, Catalina was a retreat for the Hollywood elite; movie classics like Captain Blood and Mutiny on the Bounty were filmed there. For thirty years, excluding the war, until 1951, the Chicago Cubs held spring training on the island.

The vast majority of the island was donated by its owner, the Wrigley Family (of gum fame), to the Catalina Island Conservancy. Catalina is home to rare and endangered animals like the Santa Catalina Island Fox and bald eagles. The Island Fox has been on the verge of extinction for over a decade.

Santa Catalina, like all of Southern California, has been in a bitter drought, only two inches of rain has fallen on the island all winter. I could try to make some political statement out of this, Global Warming or some such, but I can't. I can only mourn the loss of a rare and wonderful place.

The Marines at Camp Pendleton have been using their hovercraft transport ships to ferry firefighters and their equipment across the channel. Another reason why I don't hate our military, I only hate the insane uses some politicans waste them on.

Between Heaven and Hell

To Christian fundamentalists I am doomed to enternal damnation for holding such hertical beliefs as - Peace on Earth and good will towards all men; that a person is judged by the quality of his life not the quantity of his prayers; that there are few people less likely to follow the teachings of Jesus Christ that Christian fundamentalists. Witness the following perversion of the Sermon on the Mount.

what about the Bible verse that tells us to “turn the other cheek?” Based on this scripture, surely a Christian should be a pacifist and not take up arms against those that would harm him, right? Wrong! .... Jesus was teaching us to turn the other cheek in response to a slap in the face. .... So what do we learn from this? That if we don’t need to apply this teaching to any one situation outside of Jesus’ specific intent, then we don’t need to apply it to any situation outside of His intent. ~ God and the M60 Machine Gun by Johnathan Marshall

If Heaven is populated by the likes of John Marshall, Pat Robertson, and Eric Rudolph while Hell is home to non-Christians like Mohandas Ghandi and Lao Tzu, then I would much prefer the company in Hell.

~ Go to heaven for climate, and hell for society.
~ We may not doubt that society in heaven consists mainly of undesirable persons.
~ Heaven goes by favor. If it went by merit, you would stay out and your dog would go in.
All quotes from Mark Twain (another person I'd rather share eternity with instead of Jerry Falwell)

Terrorism, American-Style

Socrates' Academy is one of the few right-wing bloggers I read because, while he is often wildly wrong, he is at least an independent thinker and doesn't simply parrot Karl Rove propaganda. Independent, creative thinking is a rare thing on the right side of the political spectrum and it should be encouraged. Within limits. Writing about the six delusional Jihadists who wanted to attack Fort Dix, he concluded:

Any day now, we'll surely hear about some non-Muslim terrorist.
Don't hold your breath. ~ Socrates' Academy - May 9, 2007

Non-Muslim American Terror Groups (partial list)

• American Coalition of Life Activists ~ Noted for publishing a hit list, complete with home addresses, of abortion providers. They claim they don't do any of the actual killings, they simply rejoice when someone they target is murdered.
  
• Animal Liberation Front ~ Called a "leading domestic terrorist threat" by the FBI for mostly non-violent acts of graffiti and property vandalism.
• Army of God ~ Radical Christians who believe God has granted them the authority to kill abortion providers. Followers have bombed abortion clinics and shot doctors.
  
• Aryan Nation ~ White supremacist disciples of Adolf Hitler who urge the violent overthrow of the United States government. Suspected of funding their activities through bank robberies. One follower murdered the family of a Chicago area judge.
  
• Christian Identity Movement ~ Believe that Anglo-Saxons are the only true children of God. Their most prominent terror act was the Olympics bombing in Atlanta in 1996. Tied to armed robberies and murder. Preferred targets are Jews, non-whites, and gays.
  
• Earth Liberation Front ~ Radical environmental group that is prone to arson.
• Ku Klux Klan ~ America's oldest, best know terrorist organization.
• Militia Movement ~ Another right-wing anti-government movement. A favored tactic is exploding IEDs (pipebombs) at government facilities. Another tactic they have used is to form "common law" courts, try people in abstentia, and then threaten to execute punishment as a form of extortion.
  

This country is chock-a-block with free-lance terrorists, and rather more efficient ones that the sad collection of Muslim terrorist wannabes we have. In the last couple of decades, non-Muslim terrorists have blown up the Alfred P. Murrah Federal Building in Oklahoma City, shot up several schools (there have been 12 school shooting since George Bush was elected president), threatened scores of federal judges, bombed abortion clinics and killed doctors, sent anthrax to several politicans and journalists, attacked, beaten, and killed an unknown number of Hispanics, African-Americans, Jews, and gays.

Terrorism is as American as apple pie. You guys at Socrates' Academy can breath again.

Heartland Insecurity

Welcome, Kansans, to Homeland Security - New Orleans-style. Like post-Katrina New Olreans, rescue and recovery efforts in tornado plagued Kansas is crippled by National Guard equipment and manpower shortages caused by the Iraq War.

You'd think Bush would want to look after them. After all, Kiowa County, where the town of Greensburg was before the wraith of God wiped it from the face of the Earth, was Bush Country if ever there was one. The voters are 97 percent white and heavily Republican. They believe in keeping the Bible in their public schools and science out - believing an ignorant child is a godly child. They are everything George Bush says he cherishes. Yet they suffer because George Bush ransacked the Kansas National Guard to supply his war. In the final analysis, Bush valued his effort to kill brown-skinned Muslims more than he cared for the good citizens of Kansas.

Kansas, of course, is not a special case. Homeland Security has been compromised across the country because Bush has denuded all of this country's National Guard forces.

Handicapping the Presidential Race - Democrats

I am finding it more difficult figuring out where to place the Democratic candidates in the field. Perhaps it is because they have all gravitated around the same opinion (Get out of Iraq!) and it is hard to identify any space between them. Or, perhaps, I should start paying attention to the debates (gad, no!).

The President Race - Democrats
Same rules as last before, I'll be offering my odds and, for comparison, in red the odds calculated by the Intrade Trading Exchange.

Hillary Clinton (Sen-NY) - 2 to 1 (1 to 1)
Being the most pro-war of the anti-war candidates hasn't gotten her very much so she is undergoing a conversion. She still leads the polls but, like Rudy on the other side, her lead is slowly dropping. She has failed in her effort to freeze out her opponent's fundraising. Obama is even with her in funding, and since Clinton's campaign is top-heavy with paid staff, this puts her at a distinct financial disavantage. For the first time I don't believe Hillary is inevitable. Inevitability was her biggest advantage.

Barack Obama (Sen-IL) - 2 to 1 (2 to 1)
It is a coin flip between them right now. Obama's charisma is holding up nicely and the attempts to dull his shine have been laughable. Certainly the strangest attack has been the charge that Obama is a Manchurian Candidate, secretly a Muslim terrorist trained in an Indonesian madrassah since the age of five to be a Jihadist. Bill Clinton has come up with the curious attack that Obama has the same voting record in the Senate as Hillary. The attacks have included that Obama is too young, too pretty, still wet behind the ears, too white, too black, and he has a lousy middle name. He has come through it all smelling like a rose. I am certain that will be the next attack - Obama smells too sweet to be President.

John Edwards (former Sen-NC) - 10 to 1 (11 to 1)
Holding on to the number three position, Edwards job is to keep close and wait for an Obama-Clinton slugfest to destroy both campaigns. He had a bit of a burp with the $400 haircut but the good fortune that it happened so early no one will remember it.

Al Gore (former should have been president-TN) - 15 to 1 (9 to 1)
The "Fred Thompson" of the Democratic debate - Gore was the "Man Who Wasn't There." The difference is that Republicans have a whole lot of longing for anyone other than their current candidates, Democrats are more satisfied with their field. Gore has done nothing that says he is considering running. If he did, I would support him.

Bill Richardson (Gov-NM) - 30 to 1 (40 to 1)
Richardson has broken out of the pack to lead the also-rans. That's not saying much but I tag him as the leading Vice-Presidential candidate.

Handicapping the Presidential Race - Republicans

Following the first debates of the Presidential season, a season that will encompass three Friedman Units, it is time to update my handicapping. In the immortal words of Tom and Ray Magliozzi, I shall do this "unencumbered by the thought process." I didn't bother watching either of the debates.

Dog and Pony Shows held this early serve limited purposes. They prove that the candidates are not fictional characters but actually exist (hence the absence of Fred Thompson who is a fictional character), they allow those people who have already made up their minds to declare that their candidate won while his main opponents were drooling idiots, and they give people like Chris Matthews an excuse to draw a paycheck.

The President Race - Republicans
As before, I'll be offering my odds and, for comparison, in red the odds calculated by the Intrade Trading Exchange.

Fred Thompson (actor-TN) 5 to 1 (5 to 1)
Several fans are saying that, by not being there, Fred Thompson won the Republican debate. Thompson has a huge advantage that he is not any of the other candidates but I doubt he really wants the gig. Thompson is like the girl with a full leg cast at her high school prom - she doesn't want to dance but she does want to be asked. I think his ego will force him to run while his id will be scared shitless about winning.

Mitt Romney (former gov-MA) - 7 to 1 (5 to 1)
He hasn't been able to break out of the Morman-candidate definition. His fundraising is heavily Morman sourced and people have noticed. He has the most money and he hasn't been able to garner any new support for months. His boat is still floating but it is dead in the water.

Rudy Giuliani^tm (former mayor of New York) - 10 to 1 (2 to 1)
His lead in the polls is dropping, from the low-40's in March to the mid-30 percent range today. SurveyUSA did a snap poll and declared Giuliani winner of the debate. Most commentators thought he lost it. Why the disconnect? Because debates this early are meaningless noise. However, Mayor Rudy is showing vulnerability he didn't have a couple of months ago. To continue the metaphor, Giuliani's fancy yacht is still in front, but it has sprung a leak.

St. John McCain (Sen-AZ) - 15 to 1 (4 to 1)
He has had his Macaca moment when he sang "Bomb Bomb Iran" recently. He is trying to disarm the moment by incorporating the song "Barbara Ann" into his campaign events. Sort of a "you can't embarrass me, I'm proud I forgot my pants" concept. His fundraising sucks. The McCain campaign is like Johnny Depp in the first Pirates of the Caribbean movie, standing proudly on the mast of a dingy that has sunk up to its yardarm.

Newt Gingrich (former congressman-GA) - 40 to 1 (35 to 1)
His breakout moment has come and gone without ever happening. Fred Thompson is the new Newt, without the baggage or, frankly, the intelligence.

Mike Huckabee (former gov-AR) - 50 to 1 (40 to 1)
Keeps hanging in there, which surprises me. If stick-to-it-iveness matters more than money and endorsements, he has a chance. It doesn't.

Duncan Hunter (congressman-CA) - 1000 to 1 (1000 to 1)
Duncan intents to turn his congressional seat over to his son, like a hereditary title. Nobody knows anything about Duncan Jr. and nobody will. The plan is to keep him invisible, place the name Duncan Hunter on the ballot, and let inertia take over. I've said that Duncan will continued to be elected in his district long after he was dead. Looks like I'm right.

Vacation Time

The Iraqi parliament sees no urgency in matters of war and peace. There are uninterested in the death and destruction the on-going civil war has brought to Iraq. They don't give a flying fig about their country. Just about their only action this year has been deciding to go on vacation from July to September, perhaps longer.

I understand their thinking, I really do. It gets hot in Baghdad in the summer and the electricity is seldom working. Who wants to spend a summer dodging bullets, sand fleas, car bombs, and assassination attempts when you can take your purloined reconstruction money and laze along the French Riviera for a few months? Besides, it gets lonely being a member of the Iraq parliament; few of their colleagues ever bother showing up. Quorums are rare events in Baghdad.

The American soldiers in country will get no summer vacations. I am certain that the Iraqis who are fighting to drive the American occupiers out of their country will not be taking any vacation days, either. At least the Iraqis have learned one lesson about democracy from the American President, George Bush - that democracy is all about how to idle away those long summer days having fun while the ignorant peons die.

Decapitation Strategy

Cut off the head of the snake and the body dies. ~ Ancient Ninja Saying

The head of Al-Qaeda in Iraq, Abu Ayyub al-Masri, is dead...or not depending on the lastest reports. Nobody knows for sure and, in fact, it doesn't matter a whit.

United States military strategy is tied to the ninja expression above. They believe if we can only kill this leaders, or that one, the opposition will dissolve and the war won. This has been true from the opening days of the Iraq War and a great many innocent civilians died from this belief. The American military, with its monarchical structure and indoctrination, believes that the generals and commanders are the most important persons in a war. Their strategies, therefore, are always aimed at the opposition leadership.

The problem is, underground guerrilla warfare is a very democratic institution. The "leaders" of the small cells are chosen within the cells themselves. Grand leaders, like al-Masri, are figureheads of no importance in the fighting. So it is that when Saddam was captured the war continued, when Zarqawi was killed the war continued, and al-Masri's death or life is meaningless.

The "snake" analogy is wrong. In Iraq, as in all other underground guerrilla wars of the past century, the proper analog is the Hydra. It was a many-headed creature. Cut off one head and two more will grow to replace it.