What the Gamblers Think

I refuse to predict the outcome of the election. I have an idea but I refuse to write it down lest I jinks the result. I don't mind looking at where the professional gamblers are placing their bets.

BetUSA
1 - 8 .... Barack Obama
9 - 2 .... John McCain
If you wager $80 on Obama they will pay off only $10. They predict an 89% chance of an Obama victory and an 18% chance of a McCain win (the difference is the bookmaker's vigorish).

Paddy Power
1 - 9 .... Barack Obama
5 - 1 .... John McCain
This Irish bookmaker announced he was closed his book two weeks ago and paid off his bets assuming an Obama victory. His website is still accepting bets giving Obama a 90% chance to win and McCain 16%.

Blue Square
1 - 16 .... Barack Obama
7 - 1 ..... John McCain
These are the longest odds I can find. Obama is given a 94% chance while McCain has a 12% victory chance.

Intrade
1 - 5 ... Barack Obama
5 - 1 ... John McCain
No vigorish on this site so the odds come out even. Obama has an 84% chance; McCain a 16% chance.

Conservatives convinced McCain will win easily should get their money down now.

I've Known Politicians Like Palin and McCain

ABC News has a number of interesting little facts about Sarah Palin. I won't name names because one of them is a suer but I have known politicians that remind me of Palin.

One guy who ran for mayor of San Diego and a plethora of other seats (he's currently, thankfully, out of politics) has Sarah's lack of integrity. He is a consummate backstabber. He sat on an initiative campaign committee with me once and used that position to undercut our fund raising efforts. He told big donors wishing to contribute to our campaign to write the checks to a different campaign fund that he personally controlled.

Then there is a sitting Democratic congressman. He held a different office when I was a politically influential leader of the Sierra Club chapter. I was also at the time a personal friend of a different elected official. He sent a staffer to threaten me - if I didn't do as I was told he would destroy the career of my friend. The funny thing is I probably would have done it if asked nicely but his default action is to threaten people.

There is a sitting Republican congressman. (Okay, I'll name this one, Brian Bilbray.) To say he is as dumb as a post would be to insult posts. There is no issue where he is even marginally conversant. Unlike Sarah, Brian knows he's stupid. He is a shameless toady to anyone able to help him. His current master is Congressman Duncan Hunter.

And then there is John McCain. A sitting Republican member of the San Diego County Board of Supervisors I know is just about the nicest person you'll want to mean unless he suspects you of something. While this guy was on the San Diego City Council I bumped into his Chief of Staff on the street. We were having a meaningless, pleasant, hey-how-ya-doin' conversation when his boss drove by. The CofS turned white. He told me he was afraid he had just been seen by his boss talking to a known Democrat. His boss is known to have a thin skin and a violent temper towards anyone he perceives is a traitor.

Congratulations Alaska!

Ted Stevens (R-AK), the venally corrupt senator from the Great North, has been found guilty on all charges. He faces a maximum possible sentence of 35 years in prison and deserves each and every millisecond. Stevens has been in office for 40 years and has been an unscrupulous crook every moment.

The Great Disenfranchisement

Every American has the right to vote. That is as inalienable a right as the right to life or liberty.

John McCain can still take this election. I don't say "win" because that is impossible. He can take the election through targeted vote manipulation that will go down in history as The Great Disenfranchisement.

Ohio
Ignore the polls showing Obama leading. Hundreds of thousands of voters, millions if needed, will be stripped of their right to vote on election day by the Justice Department on orders from President Bush. It has been done before but never at the level that will be needed this time.

Florida
Its history of banana republic-style elections and creative vote counting will insure that the results will show a McCain victory regardless of the actual voting results. Gov. Charlie Crist has promised to "do anything" to help McCain and he will.

North Carolina
North Carolina Republicans have been using a variety of tactics to suppress Democratic votes. Intimidation, threats, and open thuggery will sway the results.

Similar efforts in Indiana, Georgia, and Missouri will aim to keep those states officially Republican regardless of the will of the voters. But even that will not be enough. McCain still needs Pennsylvania and the polls give Obama an insurmountable lead there. It will take armed attacks on urban polling places to suppress enough votes to swing that state. McCain has the troops, a KKK revival in the Keystone State, to pull it off.

Yes, I'm paranoid. No one can live through the past eight years and not be a little paranoid.

Maybe the McCain Campaign is Cursed

She's got me so blind I can't see;
But she's a Black Magic Woman and
she's trying to make a devil out of me. ~ Carlos Santana

A couple days ago I joked about Republicans who think African witches are cursing the McCain campaign. I might have been too hasty.

Last night when Sarah Palin dropped the ceremonial first puck at a St. Louis Blues game (she actually got a few cheers) the Blues goaltender, Manny Legace, slipped on the carpet rolled over the ice for Palin and injured his hip. St. Louis lost and the Flyers haven't won a game since Palin stepped on their ice. There is definitely some bad mojo around Palin-McCain. (Source)

McCain Campaign Worker Self-Mutilates

I stayed away from the story of the white woman who alleged she was robbed and had a "B" carved into her face by a black attacker. I found myself agreeing with Michelle Malkin (God, how weird is that) that it didn't pass the smell test but I wasn't going to speculate it was a fraud in case I was wrong. I've played the rumor game a couple times before and it always bites me in the ass.

That didn't stop some right-wing bloggers (like Ace of Spades and Melissa Cloutier) from going bat-shit crazy over the story. It turns out the woman was just trying to help the McCain campaign by pretending to be the victim of a racially/politically motivated attack. Faced with police evidence she had lied she now admits she made the whole thing up.

I have to admire her dedication. I wouldn't slam my face into a door and carve up my cheek for any political candidate, let alone face jail for filing a false police report. No politician is that good. Talk about drinking the Kool-Aid.

Wonkette followed the entire saga.

The Wasilla Project

Nobody knows Sarah Palin like her neighbors. The Wasilla Project has gone to Sarah's home town to find out the truth about her. No media filters, no campaign spin, the real truth. I've added the Project to my Necessities list because it is. (Hat tip to you-know-who.)

Photo: Wasilla, AK

'She Needed Clothes'

Bright eyes cheeks a healthy glow,
There's a store of healthiness handy.
Mite-size, always on the go,
If you want to know - "Arf", goes Sandy.

Always wears a sunny smile,
Now, wouldn't it be worth a while,
If you could be,
Like Little Orphan Annie? ~ Theme song from the Depression era radio show

I really don't have anything to add to Daddy Warbucks' (voiced by John McCain) excuse for the Palin clothes budget. Doggone it, the whole story is just so sweet and endearing I just want to 'arf up my supper, dontcha know?

Witch Doctor Curse

Ooo eee,ooo ah ah ting tang Walla walla, bing bang ~ Witch Doctor song, David Seville

I am fascinated by the prevalence of witchcraft in the 2008 election. Sarah Palin, not so famously, was blessed by a Kenyan witch hunter at her church in Wasilla. Pastor Thomas Muthee specifically prayed to protect Palin from all matters of witchcraft.

Apparently Pastor Muthee isn't all that connected to God because now, allegedly, Palin and McCain are under attack from African witches. According to one Jim Bramlett at InJesus.com, "witches and warlocks and those involved in satanism and the occult get up daily at 3 a.m. to release curses against McCain and Palin." McCain's erratic behavior is caused by the curses "weaving lazy 8's around McCain's mind to make him look confused and like an idiot." Those sinister lazy 8's.

What's scary is that Bramlett is one of the saner Republican religionites.

A vote for Obama is a vote for the Anti-Christ, for Marxism, for Socialism that leads to Communism and dictatorship and the New World Order and One World Government and no more American Constitution and Bill of Rights. ~ real live Wacky Wacko

Sarah Palin: Clothes Elephant

I should say this, that Pat doesn’t have a mink coat. But she does have a respectable Republican cloth coat. ~ Richard Nixon

In the grand scheme of things the fate of the Republic does not hang on the fact that the only person in the country who is a bigger clothes horse than Sarah Palin is Cindy McCain. Still, the Palin-McCain campaign has based the entire election on symbolism instead of issues or policies so looking at the symbolism is appropriate.

• In the eight weeks since Sarah Palin was nominated for the Vice-Presidency she has spent $150,000 of campaign funds on clothing.
• That is more money than most Americans will spend on clothing in their entire lives.
  
• Joe the Plumber would have to buy 8,500 pairs of Dickies work pants ($17.64 at Walmart) to match her.
  
• Even Joe the Investment Banker would have to buy 120 Yves Saint Laurent business suits ($1,276 at Bluefly).
• Sarah did not buy this clothing with her own money; she used campaign funds to play dress up. Consider it welfare for fashion divas.
• Her clothes budget makes the $21,800 Palin and McCain have spent on make-up look tiny.
  

While I seriously doubt that Sarah owns a respectable Republican cloth coat, she does own an extravagant Republican fur coat.

To put things in perspective, poor Sarah is just trying to play catch up. Cindy McCain had a $300,000 outfit for just one day at the Republican Convention. Sarah is just a street waif by contrast.

Fighting for the Right to Vote

The biggest fight in this election season is the fight for the right to vote. McCain's strategy is to gouge out an electoral vote majority while losing the popular vote. McCain is looking for every illegal advantage to swing vote totals.

• Wisconsin Republicans have issued a call for toughs willing to intimidate voters to serve as poll watchers;
• In several states Republicans have tried to illegally purge voting rolls;
• Rigged voting machines have been switching votes from Obama to McCain;
• Republican thugs have been heckling voters;
• (additional) Republican gorillas are threatening to murder Obama supporters.
  

That is why Barack Obama is recruiting regiments of lawyers to fight for Americans right to vote. It is a basic battle for liberty and democracy in the best tradition of our Founding Fathers.

A Couple of Pervs; A Party of Pervs

When I think pervert, I think Larry Flynt. I also think Right Wing News honcho John Hawkins.

Flynt is filming a porno featuring a Sarah Palin lookalike. I would expect nothing better from Flynt. Hawkins wants the really Palin to be Vice-President and, let's be honest, he wants McCain to dies quickly so Palin is President very soon. Hawkins also can't wait for the Palin porn flick to be released. Flynt is candid; he openingly and proudly admits to being a pervert. Hawkins is just as perverted as Flynt in a closed up, masterbating at his keyboard kind of way.

Hawkins is not alone in his perversions, he shares them with many of his fellow Republicans. There is a gigantic population of mouth-breathing Republican men who go to Palin rallies purely to fantasize about her being naked.

See also:
the comments to Hawkins' soft-core post linked above
FoxNews outraged Newsweek didn't touch up Palin's cover photo
the Sarah Palin sex doll
the Palin Dudes from Jezebel
and, just for fun, McCain's Brain checking out Palin's ass

"J-O-B-S" Is Not a Four-Letter Word

Just channeling my inner Joe Biden.

Pity Joe the Plumber

I feel sorry for Joe (the Plumber) Wurzelbacher.

It appears he is behind in his taxes, doesn't have a license to actually be a plumber in Ohio, and because his name is misspelled in the voter rolls under the rules Republicans were insisting upon would not be allowed to vote. At least a US Supreme Court ruling today seems to preserve his suffrage. All of these things would have certainly passed under the radar if John McCain had not chosen to make poor Joe poster boy for his campaign.

Few of us would survive the type of media attention that McCain brought down upon poor Joe. It's a shame because all Joe did was as a question of a candidate, which is his right as an American. He didn't deserve having McCain turn him into some sort of media freak.

The Debates From a Dog's POV

Political debates are impressionistic, as I have said before. It isn't what is said that matters so much as how it is said.

John McCain - Insecure Whelp
McCain was not an attack dog. He was more like one of those yipping little terriers. He couldn't sit still while listening, he was a weird assortment of tics and rapid eye movements. His lack of self-confidence was tangible. He would take a nip, or pee on your foot, but every aggression was clearly rooted in fear.

Barack Obama - Pack Leader
More than any of the other debates, Obama projected the aura of someone who is calm, assertive, and in control of events. His responses were forceful without being aggressive. At the worst of of McCain's nips, Obama would react with bemusement, as one would with the antics of a misbehaved puppy. Obama's aura was that of a mature leader; McCain's was of a rattlepated child.

Calm-assertive energy – This is the energy you project to show your dog you are the calm and assertive pack leader. Note: assertive does not mean angry or aggressive. Calm-assertive means always compassionate, but quietly in control. ~ Cesar Millan

Movies, Real Life - What's the Diff?

I'm beginning to think that Washington D. C. has become a Hollywood remake mill. Consider:

Dumb and Dumberer
Where George W. Bush does a masterful double role as both Harold and Lloyd.

The Godfather
Treasurer Secretary Henry Paulson takes the role of Don Vito Corleone with Ben Bernanke as his consigliere. Gathering the nation's major bankers in one room Don Vito (Paulson) makes them an offer they can't refuse - sell off parts of all of their banks to the Don, or else. The gathered bankers kiss the Don's ring and sell.

Clear and Present Danger
An unscrupulous CIA agent, George Tenet takes the role of Robert Ritter, get a top secret letter signed by the President (played by Lloyd Christmas) authorizing him to break several laws and torture people willy-nilly (This movie contains within it a remake of Saw II.) Unfortunately, there is nobody playing the role of Jack Ryan so this movie descends into a very unfunny slasher/comedy.

Titanic
A disinterested captain on his last voyage accidently collides his ship with a huge icy debt. Despite heroic efforts by young Jack Dawson (Barack Obama) the famously unsinkable ship sinks. Comic relief is provided by John McCain playing a bitter, irascible old salt.

McCain's Economic Package

No economic plan drafted as part of an election campaign can be considered comprehensive, that includes Barack Obama's. John McCain's is particularly pathetic.

McCain's Plan
Suspend rules forcing seniors to liquidate a portion of the retirement accounts annually: Looks like a good idea. The major beneficiaries will go to those people wealthy enough to be able to just sit on their assets for a few years. It won't help most retirees who have to liquidate part of their retirement periodically to pay for food and home heating.
Reduce taxes on seniors making mandatory withdrawals from IRAs and 401(k)s: On the surface this is a good idea. However, it will have little effect on the poorest retirees; most of the benefits will go to wealthy people with massive retirement accounts.
Eliminate taxes on unemployment benefits: Again, on the surface not a bad idea. But, again, the benefits will mostly go to wealthy people who are out of work from six and seven figure jobs. Think of poor Lehman Brothers CEO Richard Fuld.
Reduce taxes on long-term capital gains: Aimed at helping the wealthiest Americans who panicked, sold into the teeth of the crash, and still managed to make a profit.
Guarantee 100% of all bank savings for six months: Effectively already being done by the FDIC. This will only benefit people like the McCains who routinely keep a couple million dollars in their checking accounts.
Purchase and renegotiate everybody's mortgages: I can't quite figure this one out. There is a lot of bad paper out there that was written by unscrupulous mortgage lenders. There are millions of subprime mortgages totally trillions of dollars. It would be a massive program, probably an order of magnitude larger than McCain estimates. Think $3 trillion.

Obama's Plan
Barack Obama has an extensive and detailed plan on his website. It would take a month and more education than I have to analyze it. I will just concentrate on the proposals in his October 13 speech.
Ninety Day moratorium on foreclosures: Call it a tourniquet, if you will. Like FDR's bank holiday when he took office, this will be a cooling off period to let both banks and homeowners come to grips with what the hell is happening.
Allow withdrawals from IRAs and 401(k)s without penalties: This is the polar opposite of McCain's plan.It's a better plan. Rather than relieve a burden from people who don't need the money now, Obama will lift a burden from people struggle to survive today. The downside is that people could eat through their retirement savings too quickly, setting up serious problems later.
Job Creation Tax Credit: This will create an incentive to create new jobs, especially by small businesses. In an economic climate like this keeping old jobs will be hard enough. I doubt this will be very effective but it can't hurt.
Lend to States and Localities: The next shoe to drop will be entire states, counties, and cities going bankrupt. California is dangerously close to insolvency. If this type of assistance isn't offered then states and localities will have to raise local taxes, undoing any good the Federal effort can achieve.

Note: Yes, I know that McCain has an extensive plan, too. I've read it. It is mostly empty platitudes and not worth analysis.

Note #2: Derivatives are the root cause of this mess. There are $1.14 Quadrillion worth of them floating around the world. That is more than 100 times the current federal deficit and more than 16 times the Gross World Product. It's a major pile of shit.

Bin Laden October Surprise, Part Deux

Arianna Huffington is speculating that Osama Bin Laden will provide the fabled October Surprise by being captured or killed before the election. Bin Laden allegedly did that four years ago with his late endorsement of John Kerry. This is going to be hard given that Bin Laden died years ago.

Bin Laden was known to have serious kidney disease even before 9-11 and received kidney dialysis in January 2002. He most certainly could not survive with a fatal kidney disease under primitive conditions in Pakistan's lawless tribal region for six years. His last video tape in 2007 was clearly a forgery. The makeup job would have embarrassed a middle school drama department.

I'm not saying that the Bush Administration won't try to jigger up something. They did it four years ago with a video tape dated October 30, 2004 that appears fake. It worked then to shift the election result. I'm sure Karl Rove is in the studio now filming the latest Bin Laden tape.

Osama Bin Laden is dead but his myth continues, as an inspiration to young Islamists and as a necessary boogeyman for Republicans.

Thought Crime

William F. Buckley founded the conservative magazine National Review. Today his son was forced to resign by the editors of that magazine. Buckley's crime? He's supporting Barack Obama. If there is one thing the free thinkers at National Review can't stand it is freedom of thought.

Don't Buy Champagne Yet

Watching the stock market go up today by 11% was fun for me too. Just don't bet the crash is over.

The initial market crash of 1929 hit on October 24. On October 30, the market rose an astonishing 12%. Everyone believed the worst was over. By November 6 the market was testing its low of October 29 and fell through them. It hit a bottom on November 12, having lost 22% from the October 30 rally.

That low was not reached again for nearly a year when it was breached on October 9, 1930. From there it continued to decline, with the occasional rally, until it hit its true bottom on July 9, 1932. The Dow did not regain its high reached on September 3, 1929 (381.17) for 26 years, in 1955.

It is nice to pretend that this is the bottom but stock market trends just don't swing this quickly.

DOW JONES History
10/23/29 - - 320.91 -day before crash
10/24/29 - - 299.47 -Black Thursday
10/29/29 - - 230.07 -day before rally
10/30/29 - - 259.47 -first rally
11/06/29 - - 236.53 -one week later
11/12/29 - - 198.62 -two weeks later
07/09/32 - - +41.22 -the bottom

McCain's Failed Test

As I predicted, John McCain has failed his test of courage and honor. Given an opportunity, McCain refused to condemn a comment by a Virginia Republican official who compared Barack Obama to Osama Bin Laden. Instead, McCain used the comment to repeat his Ayers attack line.

McCain tried, I think he really did try to be honorable. He just doesn't have it in him.

McCain's Test of Courage and Honor

I believe he will fail the test. McCain's courage and honor were youthful traits that he long ago surrendered to old age.

Yesterday, McCain was booed by his own rabid crowd for daring to say that Barack Obama is a decent man and not someone to be afraid of. McCain and Palin have been whipping their rallies into a lynch mob frenzy of hate for a fortnight and, as a consequence, have begun attracting the denizens of the vilest depths of America's racist sub-culture. Yesterday, McCain tried to pull back from the abyss he has been shouting down.

The question is, will he have the courage and honor to stay respectful? Or, will he surrender again to the will of the mob and indulge their desires to wallow in hate?

Can he learn to disagree without being disagreeable?

P.S. Speaking of McCain and Sarah Palin - how is that whole gambling on a hunch and not vetting your Veep pick going for you?

Truer Words Were Never Written

Bushism must be ripped out, root and branch, everywhere it has been established, or else the presidential election of 2008 is a worthless exercise in futility. ~ Esquire Magazine

The Earth Abides

This morning I am listening to a mockingbird singing. It is serenely unaware that Civilization is collapsing around it. It does not know that the stock market is in free fall. It does not know that the Republican Party is morphing into some kind of fascio. It does not know and it does not care.

This mockingbird only knows that it found enough seeds and worms this morning. It has a full stomach and it feels like singing.

McCain's Supporters Vomit Hate

Compare and contrast. This video was taken outside of a McCain rally in Pennsylvania.

This video is of Ku Klux Klan members. Note the similarities of tone and text.

It Ain't Over 'til It's Over

I want to celebrate prematurely. The Gallup tracking poll has Obama up by 11 points and hasn't had the spread below double the margin of error in two weeks. McCain has failed in two consecutive debates to measure up to Obama in either demeanor, content, or presentation. Palin-McCain are still trying to shore up their base by campaigning in places like North Carolina and using tactics straight out of the Jesse Helms School of Political Science and Cross Burning. (I put Palin first because most conservative bloggers are now only interested in her and some are even suggesting "flipping the ticket" and making Palin the presidential candidate.)

I want to celebrate, but I won't. There is too much to do and too much that can still happen.

• Islamic extremists know that Republicans are their strongest allies in their war against civilization. That is why the October Surprise in 2004 was Bin Laden endorsing John Kerry. Al-Qaeda will do everything it can to help John McCain.
• There are concerted efforts by Republicans to rig the elections in several states including Indiana, Ohio, Virginia, Pennsylvania, and of course Florida. Voter intimidation, vote count fraud, election equipment shortages and breakdowns that only happen in Democratic precincts will all occur. Turning those five states through chicanery would change even a landslide Republican loss into a narrow McCain victory.
• Happy, complacent people forget to vote.

We have to win by such a margin that no amount of fraud will change the result. The very first day to celebrate is Wednesday, November 5.

Hate Is All They Have Left

"Terrorist!" "Kill him!" "Sit down, Boy!"

McCain-Palin rallies have begun to sound like KKK meetings. The hate oozing from the candidates is topped by a vile racism evident in the crowds. It is not hyperbole to observe that the crowds now attending McCain and Palin rallies would enthusiastically lynch the Democratic opposition if they had the chance.

It is as if John McCain has decided that the only remaining chance he has to be President is to encourage the assassination of his opponent. McCain and Palin are inciting a blood lust in their true believers. They are going way beyond the not to subtle use of words like "uppity." They have taken off the gloves and put on the pointy hoods.

Read also Black Political Thought.

Watching the Towers Fall

I had a deja vu feeling this morning while watching the stock market in free fall on CNBC. It was like watching the World Trade Center towers falling on 9-11, in super slow-mo.

This time the terrorists are not swarthy foreigners; they are American through and through. They don't wear white robes and attend mosques; they wear $3000 business suits and are members of the most exclusive country clubs. The terrorists today are not radical Islamists but radical capitalists. Their weapons are not hijacked planes but a banking system of their own creation. Make no mistake, these banker-terrorists are wielding a weapon of mass destruction.

Islamic terrorists are motivated by an insanely misguided morality. Banker-terrorists are not so high-minded. They are motivated by pure greed. The story of terrorist Richard Fuld (CEO of Lehman Brothers) is an example. When faced with troubled liquidity Fuld dismissed concerns and passed out $10 billion in bonuses. On September 11, 2008 (not a coincidental date) Fuld was simultaneously begging for a government bailout and passing out millions of dollars in bonuses.

These Wall Street terrorists are quintessentially Republican. It is the white elite golfing/equestrian/yachting set doing this. One of the Lehman Brothers criminals is President Bush's cousin, George H. Walker. While the Twin Towers was a tragedy, it was a one-off with limited scope. It affected New York and Washington and not much else. The banker-terrorist attack is like the Black Plague. It is infecting every corner of the nation. As days pass, as weeks pass, it is just getting worse and worse.

The radical capitalists are more dangerous than a thousand al-Qaedas.

To Answer My Question:No, We Won't Survive

This is what the toilet looks like from the inside, mid-flush. Three months ago, when things looked so bright and cheery and it was a different and more pleasant world, I wrote an entry in this little blog where I ask the question, "whether the nation will survive until January 20, 2009?" I am going to quote me in my entirety (emphasis added) because I hate being so fucking right all of the time.

July 15, 2008
Bush and the Economy
It's as if Herbert Hoover has been reincarnated in the body of a Texas yokel.

With the nation's banking system on the verge of collapse, with scores of banks in financial distress, its president calls things "sound." With food and fuel inflation the only things driving economic statistics, the president believes inflation is the same as economic growth.

When the nation needs decisive action it gets "To the extent that we find weakness, we'll move." And consequence immobility. Bush's press conference today was like the captain of the Titanic whistling a jaunty tune while the wheelhouse floods.

We are six months and five days until a new president is inaugurated. The only remaining question is whether the nation will survive until January 20, 2009.

A Late Show Moment

Here is a gift for all those Alaskans without televisions - the Biden-Palin debate as seen by David Letterman.

Here Come de Mud

When you have the facts on your side, argue the facts. When you have the issues on your side, argue the issues. When you have neither, throw mud as hard as you can. ~ my rewrite of an Al Gore quote

My father, who was born when Howard Taft was president, has been predicting all year that this will be the dirtiest campaign in his life. McCain is on the wrong side of the facts, the issues, and political momentum. All he has left is flinging filth.

He's Black: In each new ad McCain runs Barack Obama's face will get darker and darker while at the same time accusing Obama of playing the race card. McCain will make every effort to remind voters that Obama is black, a Negro, a goddamn uppity n****r.

He'a a Terrorist: McCain will try to tie Obama to some guy nobody has ever heard of (William Ayers) saying it proves Obama is a terrorist. Besides, his name sounds Muslim which proves Obama is a terrorist even more.

Religion: When not accusing Obama of being Muslim McCain will attack him for the Christian church he attended. It being a black church, a goddamn uppity n****r church. Besides, he's really the Anti-Christ.

The plus side for Senator Obama is that voters have been exposed to these smears and lies for over a year now. A certain immunity has set in. Besides, the best attack ads are actually true and speak to the current condition of the nation. And that puts a target directly between McCain's eyes.

Keating Five: The last time the United States suffered a collapse of its financial system due to corruption and greed was the savings and loan scandal in the 1980's. One of the principle corrupt politicians at the time was John McCain.

Sex and the Hemisphere

John McCain, says senior foreign policy adviser Richard Fontaine, knows Latin America because he screwed a Brazilian hottie a half century ago. This is a fascinating concept called Sexual Diplomacy. You can't really understand a country or region until you've had coitus with the locals.

It explains a lot. The case of Sarah Palin flirting with Pakistan President Asif Ali Zardari, the dalliance that earned Zardari a fatwa back home, is just the McCain-Palin way of getting to know the region. Although some rather disturbing images come to mind regarding McCain's close relationship with Georgia President Saakashvili. You see, Newsweek last week said McCain Loves Misha Saakashvili.

Loves? Like in a biological sense? Ewwww!

What's With the Wink?

Debates are impressionistic things. You can never tell by analyzing them what will stick in people's minds and how they will view it. Take, for example, Sarah Palin's winking during Veep debate. How will viewers react?

Winking is a flirtatious act. For religious people there is Psalm 35:19 (Let not them that are mine enemies wrongfully rejoice over me: neither let them wink with the eye that hate me without a cause.). Excessive winking and blinking are clues that someone is lying. Or there may be a benign reason, irritation or a nervous tick.

The question is not what she was doing or why. That is unimportant. It was a strange thing that people most certainly noticed. The question is how will Joe Sixpack and his Hockey Mom wife interpret the strange case of Sarah's left eye?

Two-Faced McCain

John McCain was one of the 74 senators who voted in favor of the Bailout bill on Wednesday. He said passage was vital before voting in favor.

McCain also says that the bill he voted in favor of puts the country "on the brink of economic disaster."

By the way, listening to the clip doesn't it sound like McCain is taking interview technique advise from Sarah Palin? What a bizarre, off point ramble. At least he didn't throw in a "ya' youbetchya'."

Photo was ripped from Firedoglake.

The Senate Bailout Version

Tolstoy did not write War and Peace in two days. Which just proves what a hack he was compared to the Senators who have fattened up the Wall Street Bailout to an amazing 451 pages in less than 48 hours.

I haven't read it nor will I. No Senator has read it cover to cover, not even those who claim to have written it. Anyone who claims to know everything in that bill is a bald faced liar. Nobody knows what might be hidden in all of its various subtle sub-clauses. Simply put, this is legislation run amok.

I didn't like the original Treasury Department text but at least, at three pages, it was comprehensible. The House text, at around 100 pages, was bloated but manageable. It was probably the best possible alternative. Given the choice of improving a bad bill (which is what the House text did) and the threat of a massive contraction of the global economy because of the collapse of financial markets, I'll take the improved bad bill.

I suspect there will be plenty of Representatives in the House, from both parties, who will regret voted no on Monday. The Senate has taught them a painful lesson - he who hesitates gets buried in paper. The Senate text will probably pass the House of Representatives but every Congressman who switches his vote to approve this corpulent bill is a raving hypocrite.

The Veep Debate Preview

Sarah Palin will exceed expectations. That won't be hard given that most people tuning in will be expecting a train wreck. As long as Palin can stand erect, not drool excessively, and speak in a language that sounds somewhat similar to English, she will be seen as exceeding expectations.

Joe Biden will be best served by ignoring Palin. Treat it as a press conference with a spectator standing closer than normal. Look at her when she is talking only occasionally when not taking notes, but don't react. When it is time to attack, attack McCain. Be mean, even cruel, towards McCain.

Palin will likely attack Obama. Biden should dismiss those attacks as "rote talking points" and defend Obama with uplifting prose.

There is a chance that Palin will go off on one of her rambling, semi-coherant policy babblefests. A trick to use once, and only once, is for Biden to begin his response by translating her babble into a simple declarative sentence ("I think what Governor Palin means to say is that Israel is and will always be an American ally.") and then respond. There is a risk of coming off condesending which is why I am not recommending this tactic. But, if done well, it can say that Palin is an idiot while still being gracious.

John McCain = Drama Queen

Just because it's true.

1998

That is the year when the stock markets (S&P, NASDAQ) first reached the levels they have fallen to today. Ten years of up and down going absolutely nowhere.

Bailout Bombs - What Now?

The Wall Street Bailout failed and the stock market has crashed. The original text by Paulson was horrible. The rewrite was better but still distasteful. Passing it didn't seem right but doing nothing is a catastrophe. There are four possible outcomes.

1. The House will take a day to consider the ramifications of their inaction, reconsider the existing bill, and approve it. I expect this is what will happen.
2. Pass a quick and clean stop gap and revisit the whole thing in January (Firedoglake). I don't see that being any easier than passing what was defeated today.
   
3. House Democrats write their own bill, pass it on a party line vote, and let the Senate worry about any bipartisanship. As a practical matter it is too close to the election to do that.
4. Do nothing; Congress goes home. This is the worst outcome. The Fed would have to inflate the hell out of the currency to keep the economy from completely imploding. Congressmen who thought they were doing the public's will by voting "no" will find the public outraged. The public didn't like the Bailout. They won't like not having the Bailout even more. Every down tick of the market will be laid at the Congressmen's feet. It will roil the election in unpredictable ways.

The initial backlash will probably impact Republicans. The House Republican excuse for voting "no" (Nancy Pelosi was mean and hurt their feelings) makes them sound like whiny ass titty babies (Crooks and Liars). John McCain, with the political acumen of a kumquat, took credit for the Bailout bill's victory just before it was defeated. That makes McCain look weak. But, that is today's snapshot.

There is no telling how people will feel in a month. Any congressman or pundit who says he can predict the future on this is a fool. Democrats have to take charge on this issue. If they fail to act they risk being punished as badly as Republicans. For Democrats to do nothing risks allowing Republicans to steal the mantle of leader.

As I learned in typing class so many years ago: Now is the time for all good men to come to the aid of their country.

McCain: Compulsive Gambler

Another Maverick reference. John McCain is a gambler. Not in a calculated risk-taking good way. He is a gambler in a destructive, in need of a twelve-step program way. McCain is the kind of gambler who will go all-in with a pair of deuces showing and a seven of spades hole-card.

Like that other former fighter pilot-turned-politician, Duke Cunningham, McCain takes risks just because they are there. The riskier the better and to hell with the odds of success.

Take, for example, his suspending his campaign last week. He had no plan for what to do afterwards. He didn't think ahead, he just rolled the dice. Because he had no plan he ended up looking, and being, meaningless. By crawling back to the debate like he did he embarrassed all of his right-wing supporters who had called the suspension brilliant. McCain was like the husband who, having lost the mortgage money at the race track, asked his wife for her wedding ring so he can hock it.

Sarah Palin was another rash gamble. He made her too important to the campaign, even overshadowing himself. He overplayed the Palin hand like a Texas Hold'em player who overplays a bottom-end straight draw hoping to chase his opponents from the pot. Against a seasoned professional it is a hopeless strategy.

McCain is a reckless gambler. He doesn't study the Racing Form with a betting strategy. He just throws his money at longshot after longshot. It's an adrenaline rush, an old guy version of flathatting. McCain's style of gambling is exciting. You never know when McCain will up and do something insane. However, an insatiable desire for excitement and reckless behavior are not the best traits for a President.

McCain Campaign Is Like an Ionesco Play

As McCain lurches from one farce to another his campaign has taken on the surreal look of absurdist French theater. The latest travesty hitting the rumor circuit (via the London Times) is that the campaign is planning a surprise October wedding of Bristol Palin to swing the election.

Nothing would shift those swing voters better than turning the marriage of a pregnant teenager into a media circus. A shotgun wedding between a self-described "fucking redneck" and his underage bride would be the feel good event of the year. People by the millions would forget their economic woes and the endless Republican wars and race to vote Republican.
What the wedding photo will look like. (from a production of 7 Brides for 7 Brothers)

Blinky McBlink

You can't blink, you have to be wired in a way of being so committed to the mission, the mission that we're on, reform of this country and victory in the war, you can't blink. ~ Sarah Palin

Yet McCain blinks a lot. Firedoglake has an interesting video showing John McCain's insensate blinking, averaging better than two blinks per second. Looks like McCain isn't wired right and isn't committed to the mission.

A Little Sarah Time

Since I don't care about the actual content of debates I thought I'd spend a little time on Dear Sarah.

• The Anchorage Daily News has a comprehensive review of Sarah Palin's week from Hell.
• Ezra Klein at American Prospect has the most cogent analysis. Her brain is so overfilled with talking points that she is spouting them in a random series of sentences. A commenter to this article notes, "We see exactly *why* it took Sarah Palin seven years and five colleges to come away with a bachelor's degree in journalism, for God's sake."
• While Joe Biden was all over the news networks spinning the debate Friday night, Sarah was hiding out at an Irish pub in Philly getting foreign policy experience and singing karaoke. (picture source)
• A company is selling life-size wall stickers of Sarah, complete with stick-on hunting rifle, lipstick, and tiara.
  
• She is making such a habit of ending her sentences with prepositions that I am changing my mind. I used defend them against overzealous schoolmarms as a way, occasionally, to avoid painfully awkward sentence construction. Sarah, somehow, manages to enhance the awkwardness of her sentences while still dangling her prepositions for all to hear. ("That's why I say I, like every American I'm speaking with, were ill about this position that we have been put in.")

I put the odds at even money that, come Thursday when the Vice-Presidential debate is scheduled, Sarah will have to cancel. She will catch some illness (cold, flu, beriberi, Dengue Fever), her baby will come down with cholic, she'll trip and crack a tooth. Something will happen and she'll have to cancel.

Surrender Monkey

As predicted, John McCain surrendered. McCain is skiddering off to Mississippi to the debate he said he wanted postponed. In a face-to-face confrontation with Barack Obama, McCain blinked - big time.

McCain's Debate Tale

It is a tale told by an idiot, full of sound and fury, signifying nothing. ~ Shakespeare

McCain will show up for the debate on Friday. To do otherwise would be political suicide. He will try to make his appearance dramatic, as if he is making some great sacrifice being there. If he blunders he will have the automatic excuse that he has been distracted doing the Nation's Business.

Chicken Shit McCain

So, all of this is about really about keeping Sarah Palin in hiding by canceling the Veep debate.

Chicken McCain

It is frequently true in life that a man who commits acts of bravery in his youth becomes a coward in his old age. John McCain is such a man.

With age, the courage of youth is often replaces with fear. Boldness has morphed into imprudence. An agile mind becomes hesitant and unsure. Such it is with John McCain.

In many ways it is sad to see the decline of this man. Sadder still would be if the country places its fate in the hands of this shell of a man.

McCain Wants to Back Out of the Friday Debate

Sen. Obama should regretfully accept the cancellation of the September 26 debate. The remaining two debates (October 7 & 15) and the Vice-Presidential debate (October 2) should be devoted entirely to discussing the economic crisis.

Sen. Obama should also remind McCain that now, in a moment of crisis, is not the time for politicians to hide from the American people. McCain may do as he wishes but Sen. Obama will continue to meet with the American people.

A Price Must Be Paid - Final Thoughts

• I've reached the conclusion that the Paulson Bailout, and its variations, are unacceptable. The stated goal, to create a fluid environment for borrowing, can be accomplished by other means.
  
• Recapitalizing banks by buying debt at inflated prices is an inefficient way to accomplish the stated goal. It is rewarding bad judgment with the biggest prizes going to the most stupid.
• It is obvious the Paulson Bailout was written during a Friday all-nighter with pizza and beer. The evidence of alcohol can be seen in the text. (Hey, you know what would be cool? Why don't we make me God. We can call it Section 8 and see if anyone gets the joke.)
• I am truly impressed that Senator Chris Dodd was able to turn Paulson's vague mess into competent legislation so quickly. It was a legislative tour de'force.
• Still, Paulson's Bailout is a pile of crap and any rewrite is just spritzing perfume on shit. (No, that is not a Sarah Palin reference.)
• While I have gotten used to the Bush Administration panic mode, Paulson's declaration that only he can save the Universe is silly. (Après nous, le déluge.)
• If Paulson had just taken a couple of slow, deep breaths (instead of pissing his pants) and called in a few experts he would have gotten several superior plans.
• Congress should not be stampeded into bad legislation because Hank Paulson is a timorous mouse with delusions of godhood. Dodd and Barney Frank should take the time to do this right. It is probably prudent to leave Paulson out of this process because his high-pitched squealing would just be a distraction.

No, I am not deluded into think this is the last I will write on the Paulson Bailout. But I can dream, can't I?

A Price Must Be Paid - Four

Has anyone else noticed that no CEO has requested the Wall Street Bailout? All of the impetus for this has come from Bernanke and Paulson. The businesses that are to benefit from the Bailout have been silent. Curious, no?

It could be that the requests were made privately and Bernanke and Paulson acting as dutiful servants to the major banks. It is also possible that this "crisis" is fake. That it is a political construct, an October Surprise designed by the Bush Administration to game the election.

It being fake would explain the strange argument that unless the Bailout is made outlandishly sweet the banks might refuse to participate. As if CEOs would prefer unemployment to losing their bonuses for a year or two. It is as if this is being set up to fail so Democrats can be "blamed" for the "failure."

That Little Old Calvinist, Me

I have noticed a certain hardcore compassionlessness has crept into my writing recently.

Partly I'm angry because the Randians whose job it is to rail against any form of public kindness have been strangely silent on the Wall Street Bailout. The same people who complained about the rebuilding efforts in New Orleans after Katrina can't seem to come up with a cogent argument regarding the wholesale bailout of Wall Street millionaires.

Mostly I'm angry because the Robber Barons who profited by the billions (Lehman Bros (2006) and Lehman Bros. (2008), Goldman Sachs (2006) and Goldman Sachs (2005)) bringing the nation into this crisis are now lobbying to profit by the billions through the bailout. (Note: those four reports total $43 billion in bonuses for just two companies for just two years each. Add in all of the hedge funds, investment banks, and commercial banks for the entire length of the Bush Presidency and we would get damn close to the magic $700 billion mark.)

A Price Must Be Paid. The people who are destroying the world's economy must not be allowed to profit by it.

A Price Must Be Paid - Three

To participate in the Wall Street Bailout, all senior management must have first returned all bonuses, including exercised or outstanding stock options, received during the previous twelve months. As long as the Government owns the assets purchased in the Bailout, no senior management may receive any stock options, bonuses, or severance payments.

If management is not willing to relinquish their bonuses, stock options, and golden parachutes then they are not in need of a government bailout.

A Price Must Be Paid - Two

If this abysmal Wall Street Bailout has to be enacted it must be paid for with a hefty surcharge on the dividends and capital gains of everyone earning in excess of $200,000. We are bailing out the rich - the rich should fucking well pay for it.

A Price Must Be Paid

The Wall Street Journal has the text of the $700 billion Wall Street bailout. It is egregious.

Section 4 allows for only vague and infrequent reports to Congress.

Within three months of the first exercise of the authority granted in section 2(a), and semiannually thereafter, the Secretary shall report to the Committees on the Budget, Financial Services, and Ways and Means of the House of Representatives and the Committees on the Budget, Finance, and Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs of the Senate with respect to the authorities exercised under this Act and the considerations required by section 3.

Improvement to Section 4
The Treasury Secretary must submit written reports under penalty of perjury to both houses of Congress on a monthly basis. The reports must be fully public with no information redacted. The reports must list all transactions under this plan, the book value of the debt being acquired, the current market value, and the price the Government paid for the debt.

All sales of assets under this Act must be similarly reported (book value, current value, price paid to the Government). If the price paid to the Government is less than the current value or the price the Government paid to purchase the asset the Treasury Sec. must explain to Congress in detail the reason for this discrepancy.

Section 8 grants absolute autonomous power to the Treasury Sec.

Decisions by the Secretary pursuant to the authority of this Act are non-reviewable and committed to agency discretion, and may not be reviewed by any court of law or any administrative agency.

Improvement to Section 8
All existing laws apply to the Secretary pursuant to the authority of this Act. Congress has the absolute right to review the actions and decisions of the Secretary and to appoint such reviewing authorities Congress deems necessary.

(Stiff criminal penalties for defrauding the Government under this program must be stated in the law. Such defrauding to include misrepresenting the book or current value of the debt. Both the corporation and its responsible officers are legally responsible for the information provided by the corporation it must be provided under penalty of perjury.)

Additional Section
The accounting books for any corporation participating in this program are to be open in their entity to examination by the Treasury Department or the United States Congress for as long as the Federal Government holds the debt acquired.
*****
There is more I would like but the above are the minimum changes to make the Paulson Bank Bailout Act acceptable. My wish list improvements are:

• Every corporation participating in this program is restricted to the compensation it pays to all employees, individual consultants, and board members. For five years from first participation no individual may receive total compensation (salary, bonuses, stock options) in excess of twelve times the median household salary for the preceding years. In 2007 the median household salary was $50,233 meaning the highest compensation allowed for 2008 would be $602,796.
• The government is to receive equity in the corporation equal to some percentage (say 20%) of the difference between the book value and the price paid for the assets purchased by the Government. This equity to be used to help homeowners facing foreclosure.
  

McCain's Proposal: Make the Nation's Health Care Like the Banking System

I've known for some time that John McCain wanted to use banking deregulation as the pattern for reforming (by reform he means utterly destroy) health care. It was sort of his secret. He believed it, he'd share that belief with the right ultra-conservative crowd, but I didn't think him stupid enough to chat it up to the broader public. I was wrong.

Opening up the health insurance market to more vigorous nationwide competition, as we have done over the last decade in banking, would provide more choices of innovative products less burdened by the worst excesses of state-based regulation. ~ John McCain in Contingencies Magazine Sept/Oct 2008

In one sentence McCain puts himself foursquare behind the policies that have caused the banking industry to dissolve and he has promised to do the very same thing to health insurance. What an astonishing toofer. And it is out there in print, available in many of the finer HMO waiting rooms.

Contingencies Magazine website

I Guess We're All Communists Now

What a week! The government nationalized the mortgage industry when it took control of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. The government nationalized the insurance industry with the forced acquisition of AIG. Now the government is building a garbage bank where all the lesser banks can sell their worthless bad paper - meaning, of course, that bankers now have absolutely no incentive to use due diligence while writing loans to their wasteful billionaire buddies.

Add in domestic spying and internal passports and we will have created a Communist government of a type Ronald Reagan used to denounce.

The United States government is Communist with a Chinese tint. The rich and connected know the government is always ready to help them if they stumble. It will pick them up and refill their pockets with gold. The poor and what is left of the middle class know they are on their own. Success is impossible. Should they fail, as they surely must, all they will receive is a lecture on Republican Self Reliance.

Call Them 'Bushvilles'

In a echo of the Depression era "Hoovervilles" the AP is reporting on modern tent cities populated by the thousands of Americans made homeless by the economic crisis.

For those people whose high school history instructions was derelict (Sarah Palin), "Hooverville" was the collective name for the homeless encampments that sprang up around American cities during the 1930's. They were named for President Herbert Hoover. Under that Republican president, as now, what assistance that was available went to the wealthy cronies of the politically powerful.

Palin-McCain Times Three

E-Mail:
Way back when e-mail was new and I was an adviser to an elected official I gave her some advice:

Never write anything in an e-mail you wouldn't want to see posted on the first floor bulletin board.

Palin used an insecure, public e-mail account and it got hacked. Of course it did. Grow up. That's why governments maintain highly secure accounts. Palin was stupid to use a Yahoo account.

Questions and Answers:
Sarah Palin actually tried to answer a question at a McCain townhall meeting. As her answer faded into a testy babble McCain had to come to her rescue.

Palin delivers speeches reasonably well but she is lost in a question-answer format. Like Bush, she has a problem understanding the subject-verb sentence structure concept. Unlike Bush she doesn't have a native, childlike wit to fall back on when she has to ad-lib.

Who Gets Top Billing:
Sarah today put herself at the top of the ticket. She's been upstaging Old Man John for some time, she is stealing top billing for herself now too. If they win I expect Sarah will lock John in the Lincoln Bedroom and just take over.

Two Snapshots of the Coming Depression

Maybe it means nothing. Maybe it means everything.

• Fine Dining is Kaput. I drove by Anthony's Fish Grotto here in San Diego at lunch time today. It's a mid-range eatery - somewhat pricey (dinner for two will cost about $60 without wine), but well below the most expensive hashhouses in town. They normally have about 25 cars in their parking lot for lunch. Today there were four.
  
• Empty Grocery Shelves. Later I went to Vons grocery store to buy some fresh vegetables. There were gapping holes in the fresh food aisles. There was no broccoli, no green beans, a slim selection of fresh meats, and the fruit look past its prime. The canned and packaged food aisles were full. It was as if anything with a long shelf life was still abundant while those things that have to be delivered fresh daily was in short supply. As if several suppliers stopped delivering.
  

Maybe I just caught a couple of anomalies. I hope so. Or, maybe I spotted the leading edge of the total collapse of the nation's economy. I hope I'm just being paranoid.

McCain: Deregulation Hawk

One could argue, quite accurately, that John McCain is responsible for the Nation's economic crisis. McCain has worked his entire career to deregulate the financial industry - with disastrous results.

• In the 1980's McCain was a key figure in deregulating the savings and loan industry. McCain parlayed it into highly profitable graft for himself. That led to wholesale theft and the collaspe of many S&Ls. McCain got caught in the the ensuing scandal but successfully used his POW line to wiggle free.
• McCain's economic guru, Phil Gramm, slipped the "Enron Loophole" into legislation in the year 2000. This deregulatory loophole was used by that infamous company to game the electricity markets so egregiously that it led to Enron's own collapse. Since then, McCain has blocked every effort to close the loophole which is now being used by energy traders to game gasoline prices.
• The current banking crisis traces back to the repeal of the Glass-Steagall Act in 1999. Again Phil Gramm get direct blame for deregulating banks. Again, John McCain followed Gramm like an servile puppy in the effort. The effect is an economic crisis the world has not seen in 75 years.
  
• McCain has said he will make Phil Gramm Treasury Secretary.
• McCain's son, Andrew, ran an Arizona bank into bankruptcy earlier this year under curious, at least, circumstances.
  
• Not content with fucking the nation's economy, McCain is campaigning on a platform of deregulating health care.

It is true that, as of today, John McCain is urging reregulating the financial markets. Of course that would mean undoing his life's work. But, John McCain wouldn't lie, would he? He wouldn't say one thing now to get elected and do another thing after he gets in office, would he?

Black Monday

The stock market is poised to fall off a cliff today. It will be an old fashioned Panic, a blood letting. But everything is okay because John McCain has declared the economy is fundamentally strong and he wouldn't lie, would he?

Palin Is a Chorine

He used to like to take me out and show me off. Ugly guys like to do that.

I've been wondering what Sarah Palin is. Not who she is, I know that, but what role she fills.

John McCain hardly goes anywhere anymore without Palin on his arm. She's more important than mere arm candy. She's more like a brunette chorine. Like a magician's assistant, her job is to wear a tight skirt, flash some leg, smile a lot, and distract the audience from the slight-of-hand going on. And I have to say she is doing a good job. Nobody is paying attention to anything McCain says anymore.

Another celebrity chorine, Roxie Hart.

Hunker Down

Tens of thousands of people are suffering in Houston because they listened to official advise to "Hunker Down."

Of course now those same officials who instructed Houstonians to stay in place because evacuating an American city is too difficult a tack for government to manage are now blaming the victims of the hurricane for not leaving.

Yet another example of government hypocrisy written in innocent blood.

Murdering Straight Talk

John McCain has murdered the concept of Straight Talk. His lies are bold and frequent. He has learned the teachings of a master that if he always lies and repeats the lies endlessly in the face of contradiction people will believe the lies. When caught lying he attacks - it is "disrespectful" to show he has lied.

This is not a ruthless Nazi reference, it is a pathological liar reference. As a liar, John McCain has exceeded the reach of George Bush and is equaling the skill of Hitler's Propaganda Minister, Joseph Goebbels. As Goebbels knew, skillful pathological liars can gain ultimate power.

"If you tell a lie big enough and keep repeating it, people will eventually come to believe it. The lie can be maintained only for such time as the State can shield the people from the political, economic and/or military consequences of the lie. It thus becomes vitally important for the State to use all of its powers to repress dissent, for the truth is the mortal enemy of the lie, and thus by extension, the truth is the greatest enemy of the State."

"The most brilliant propagandist technique will yield no success unless one fundamental principle is borne in mind constantly - it must confine itself to a few points and repeat them over and over."

And one for Sarah Palin. "Intellectual activity is a danger to the building of character."

A Time to Focus

Judging from what I'm seeing I don't think they need it, but here is some advice for the Obama campaign.

• Forget Sarah Palin. She is a meaningless celebrity. The newsmedia is going to spend way too much space on her, she doesn't deserve a breath from the campaign except to denounce her whenever some vile noise emits from her mouth. The opponent is John McCain.
• Ignore the published polls. According to the published polls (Rasmussen, Gallup, etc.) some 90+ percent of the public is solidly behind one candidate or the other. That's hogwash. The truth is 40% of the electorate, mas or menos, is persuadable. The published polls are advertising for the polling companies so they want to appear definitive when accurate polling would show it still a general mishmash.
• Never apologize. Double down on any attack that draws blood. For example: "That lipstick wearing pig I'm talking about is John McCain."
• Fight for the right to vote. Republicans are currently working to prevent Democrats from voting in battleground states like Ohio, Florida, and Virginia. Many states will be won or lost depending on whether or not Republicans succeed in stealing the right to vote from the American people.
  

The Agony of de Feet

On a completely personal note, I am in pain (poor dear). Or at least my feet hurt. The right foot came first with Achilles tendonitis. Not wanting to be ignored, my left foot developed a really nasty case of plantar fasciitis. The result is that walking is a test of creative foot placement to minimizing the sharp, stabbing pain while I wait for my podiatry appointment.

Making Enemies Wherever We Go

Be sure you are right - then go ahead. ~ Davy Crockett

Everyone knows that the Taliban leadership and what's left of Bin Laden are hiding out in the lawless region of Pakistan. The problem with the recent attack by the United States into sovereign Pakistan was it was a monumental cockup. The attack may, or may not, have killed anyone important but it certainly killed a score of innocents.

Obviously timed to coincide with the Republican Convention, the September 3 attack probably failed since there was no bragging about it from the podium the following day. Instead the United States followed the attack by announcing we will be selling nuclear technology to Pakistan's enemy, India.

Clumsy, ham-handed, politically motivated, ill-considered, deadly, and a failure. It was Republican diplomacy at its best.

The Real Original Maverick

They used to say in vaudeville that you never want to follow an animal act. John McCain fell into that trap. Never a compelling speaker he was positively soporific last night following Palin's snarling attack dog performance.
But I don't want to talk about that. I want to talk about Maverick, the REAL Maverick.

The real Maverick was a gambler, an inveterate poker player, and something of a con man. He was lazy and, above all else, a coward. As his Pappy always said, "He who fights and runs away lives to run away another day."

The real Maverick was Bret Maverick as played by James Garner in the 1950's television program. The entire series can be seen weekdays and 6 pm on the Encore Western cable channel.

As my old pappy used to say, 'work is fine for killin' time, but it's a shaky way to make a living.' ~ Bret Maverick

Pit Bull

The reviews are in and Sarah Palin is the new Spiro Agnew.

An attack dog skilled at reading other people's writings (Who will be her William Safire?), she has set her career path. It will be a ugly path never mitigated with pleasant prose. And it will likely end with her serving time in prison. Hopefully, I will not need to spend any additional time thinking about her.

Full creds to Jonathan Singer who saw this potential before anyone else.

Focus Grouping the Republican Convention

As I said earlier, the focus groups for conventions are both party's political junkies.

The reaction to Tuesday was, well, nothing. Virtually nobody, even right-wing blogs like Redstate had anything to say about the speeches. Up until now the Republican Convention is a non-event.

Everyone is waiting for Sarah Palin tonight. It is not that people have low expectations for her, they don't know what to expect. Unlike Dan Quayle, she has to do more than just be able to walk and chew gum at the same time. This is her roll-out for 99.95% of the American people. She has one chance, just this one single chance to impress.

What to expect. The cheering will be so loud early she won't be allowed to finish sentences without being interrupted. Expect her to spend an inordinate amount of time just smiling at the cameras. The cheering often will come at inappropriate moments as the crowd will be trying to protect her from looking lost or hesitant. The words themselves will be completely meaningless. Republicans at the end will be calling it the greatest oration since Cicero. Frankly, they will be thrilled if she doesn't get obvious flop sweat.

People will be watching in the same way they gawk at traffic accidents, hoping to see blood on the streets. Me? I've got the Discovery Channel.